USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 00:30

Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake

Upcoming · kicks off 00:30

Our callAustin FC to winMatch result · bwin

Odds3.00

Stake0.5u

RiskMedium

Confidence1/5

Market (odds)33.3%

Our model37.6%

Edge

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:20
Final checkDue about 23:15

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:20

Austin FC to win: the model rates them level with Salt Lake, the price does not

Model37.7%Austin FC to win
Price3.00bwin: implies 33.3%

Why we back Austin FC

Austin FC to win: the model rates them level with Salt Lake, the price does not. Model 37.7% against 33.3% in the 3.00 price on bwin: gap 4.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model 37.7% against 33.3% in the 3.00 price on bwin: gap 4.3 pp.
2Salt Lake lack Diego Luna and three more; Austin miss two.
3Market has Salt Lake at 45%, the model has them at 35%.

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.

Austin FC winmarket 31% · model 38%

Drawmarket 27% · model 27%

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 00:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 08:36

FirstLatestChange

Austin FC2.623.03+0.41

Draw3.813.84+0.03

Real Salt Lake2.592.27-0.32

We published at 3.00. Latest: 3.03.

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Austin FC ↓ · Real Salt Lake →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	8	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	1	<1	<1

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	3.00	33.3%	37.7%	+4.3 pp
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.1%	-1.5 pp
Away win	2.20	45.5%	35.3%	-10.2 pp
Austin FC or draw	1.62	61.7%	64.8%	+3.0 pp
Real Salt Lake or draw	1.36	73.5%	62.4%	-11.2 pp
Over 2.5	1.60	62.5%	50.4%	-12.1 pp
Under 2.5	2.30	43.5%	49.6%	+6.1 pp
Both score: yes	1.50	66.7%	55.3%	-11.4 pp
Both score: no	2.50	40%	44.7%	+4.7 pp

Austin FC ↓ · Real Salt Lake →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	8	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	3.00	33.3%	37.7%	+4.3 pp
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.1%	-1.5 pp
Away win	2.20	45.5%	35.3%	-10.2 pp
Austin FC or draw	1.62	61.7%	64.8%	+3.0 pp
Real Salt Lake or draw	1.36	73.5%	62.4%	-11.2 pp
Over 2.5	1.60	62.5%	50.4%	-12.1 pp
Under 2.5	2.30	43.5%	49.6%	+6.1 pp
Both score: yes	1.50	66.7%	55.3%	-11.4 pp
Both score: no	2.50	40%	44.7%	+4.7 pp

Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake

Match report

Why we back Austin FC

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

Austin FC vs Real Salt Lake

Match report

Why we back Austin FC

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

Austin FC ↓ · Real Salt Lake →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	8	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Austin FC ↓ · Real Salt Lake →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	8	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Match report

Why we back Austin FC

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Match report

Why we back Austin FC

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

Austin FC ↓ · Real Salt Lake →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	8	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1