USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 02:30
Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego FC
Upcoming · kicks off 02:30
Our callSan Diego FC win or drawDouble chance · bwin
Odds2.75
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)36.4%
Our model40.2%
Edge
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:21
- Final checkDue about 01:15
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:21
San Diego FC or draw: Vancouver are missing Müller and three more
- Model40.2%San Diego FC or draw
- Price2.75bwin: implies 36.4%
Why we make this call
San Diego FC or draw: Vancouver are missing Müller and three more. Model 40.2% against 36.4% in the 2.75 price on bwin: gap 3.8 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model 40.2% against 36.4% in the 2.75 price on bwin: gap 3.8 pp.
- 2Vancouver have four players out, including Thomas Müller.
- 3The model has San Diego or draw at 40%; the price implies 36%.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
Vancouver Whitecaps winmarket 67% · model 60%
Drawmarket 17% · model 21%
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 02:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 09:36
FirstLatestChange
Vancouver Whitecaps1.471.40-0.07
Draw5.315.73+0.42
San Diego FC6.157.13+0.98
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.