USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 02:30
Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo
Upcoming · kicks off 02:30
Our callUnder 2.5 goalsTotal goals · bwin
Odds2.20
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)45.5%
Our model58.0%
Edge+12.6 pp
Fair odds (model)1.72
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:21
- Final checkDue about 01:15
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:21
Under 2.5 goals: the model expects a tight game, the price expects goals
- Model58%Under 2.5 goals
- Price2.20bwin: implies 45.5%
Why we make this call
Under 2.5 goals: the model expects a tight game, the price expects goals. Model 58% against 45.5% in the 2.20 price on bwin: gap 12.6 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model 58% against 45.5% in the 2.20 price on bwin: gap 12.6 pp.
- 2Seattle are without Pedro de la Vega and Musovski, two forwards.
- 3The model has under 2.5 at 58%; the price implies 45%.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
Seattle Sounders winmarket 53% · model 47%
Drawmarket 24% · model 28%
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 02:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 02:31
FirstLatestChange
Seattle Sounders1.851.850.00
Draw4.054.050.00
Houston Dynamo4.134.130.00
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.