USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 02:30

San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids

Upcoming · kicks off 02:30

Our callSan Jose Earthquakes to winMatch result · bwin

Odds2.20

Stake0.5u

RiskMedium

Confidence1/5

Market (odds)45.5%

Our model48.5%

Edge

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:21
Final checkDue about 01:15

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:21

San Jose Earthquakes to win: Colorado are short of players, the price is generous

Model48.5%San Jose Earthquakes to win
Price2.20bwin: implies 45.5%

Why we back San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes to win: Colorado are short of players, the price is generous. Model 48.5% against 45.5% in the 2.20 price on bwin: gap 3.0 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model 48.5% against 45.5% in the 2.20 price on bwin: gap 3.0 pp.
2Colorado have six players out, including goalkeeper Zack Steffen.
3The model has San Jose at 48.5%; the price implies 45.5%.

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.

San Jose Earthquakes winmarket 43% · model 48%

Drawmarket 26% · model

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 02:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 06:06

FirstLatestChange

San Jose Earthquakes2.202.29+0.09

Draw3.843.76-0.08

Colorado Rapids3.173.06-0.11

We published at 2.20. Latest: 2.29.

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Why we back San Jose Earthquakes

1Model 48.5% against 45.5% in the 2.20 price on bwin: gap 3.0 pp.

2Colorado have six players out, including goalkeeper Zack Steffen.

3The model has San Jose at 48.5%; the price implies 45.5%.

San Jose Earthquakes ↓ · Colorado Rapids →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	9	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	2.20	45.5%	48.5%	+3.0 pp
Draw	3.70	27%	24.1%	-2.9 pp
Away win	3.00	33.3%	27.4%	-5.9 pp
San Jose Earthquakes or draw	1.36	73.5%	72.6%	-1.0 pp
Colorado Rapids or draw	1.62	61.7%	51.5%	-10.2 pp
Over 2.5	1.65	60.6%	60.1%	-0.5 pp
Under 2.5	2.20	45.5%	39.9%	-5.6 pp
Both score: yes	1.53	65.4%	61.5%	-3.9 pp
Both score: no	2.38	42%	38.5%	-3.5 pp

San Jose Earthquakes ↓ · Colorado Rapids →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	9	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	2.20	45.5%	48.5%	+3.0 pp
Draw	3.70	27%	24.1%	-2.9 pp
Away win	3.00	33.3%	27.4%	-5.9 pp
San Jose Earthquakes or draw	1.36	73.5%	72.6%	-1.0 pp
Colorado Rapids or draw	1.62	61.7%	51.5%	-10.2 pp
Over 2.5	1.65	60.6%	60.1%	-0.5 pp
Under 2.5	2.20	45.5%	39.9%	-5.6 pp
Both score: yes	1.53	65.4%	61.5%	-3.9 pp
Both score: no	2.38	42%	38.5%	-3.5 pp

San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids

Match report

Why we back San Jose Earthquakes

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids

Match report

Why we back San Jose Earthquakes

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes ↓ · Colorado Rapids →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	9	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

San Jose Earthquakes ↓ · Colorado Rapids →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	9	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Match report

Why we back San Jose Earthquakes

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Match report

Why we back San Jose Earthquakes

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes ↓ · Colorado Rapids →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	9	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1