USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 00:30
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City
Upcoming · kicks off 00:30
Our callOrlando City win or drawDouble chance · bwin
Odds2.38
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)42.0%
Our model49.3%
Edge
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:21
- Final checkDue about 23:15
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:21
Orlando City or draw: the model gives the visitors far more than the price
- Model49.3%Orlando City or draw
- Price2.38bwin: implies 42%
Why we make this call
Orlando City or draw: the model gives the visitors far more than the price. Model 49.3% against 42% in the 2.38 price on bwin: gap 7.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model 49.3% against 42% in the 2.38 price on bwin: gap 7.3 pp.
- 2Three Chicago players are out, two of them midfielders.
- 3The model has Orlando or draw at 49%; the price implies 42%.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
Chicago Fire winmarket 62% · model 51%
Drawmarket 21% · model 21%
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 00:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 05:33
FirstLatestChange
Chicago Fire1.601.56-0.04
Draw4.905.10+0.20
Orlando City4.965.10+0.14
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.