Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 29 Oct 2026, 00:30

Bahia vs Sao Paulo

Upcoming · kicks off 00:30

Our callNo call for this match.

Our analysis

Biggest gap to the market: a draw, 28.0% for the model against 27.5% implied by Tipsport's odds of 3.63 (+0.5 pp). Our minimum for a call is 2 pp, so no call.

Read 28 Oct 2026, 11:01

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Bahia winmarket 50% · model 47%

Drawmarket 28% · model 28%

Sao Paulo winmarket 27% · model 25%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.43 - 0.97Bahia - Sao Paulo

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 00:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 02:33

FirstLatestChange

Bahia2.062.01-0.05

Draw3.593.63+0.04

Sao Paulo3.593.71+0.12

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

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Bahia ↓ · Sao Paulo →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	8	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Bahia vs Sao Paulo

Our analysis

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Odds movement

The match

Bahia vs Sao Paulo

Our analysis

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Odds movement

The match

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Bahia ↓ · Sao Paulo →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	8	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Bahia ↓ · Sao Paulo →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	8	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Our analysis

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Our analysis

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Bahia ↓ · Sao Paulo →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	8	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1