Portugal · Liga Portugal · 2 Nov 2026, 20:15
Benfica vs Alverca
Biggest gap to the market: a draw, 16.5% for the model against 8.6% implied by Tipsport's odds of 11.60 (+7.9 pp). Above our 2 pp minimum, but no tip was published.
Read 2 Nov 2026, 14:02
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Tipsport 1X2 · 1 Nov 2026, 20:16 to 2 Nov 2026, 15:27
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely2–0 11%2–1 9%3–0 9%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Benfica and 5 for Alverca.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
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