England · Championship · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00
4 – 1
DerbyWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Biggest gap to the market: Derby to win, 23.7% for the model against 20.4% implied by Tipsport's odds of 4.89 (+3.3 pp). Above our 2 pp minimum, but no tip was published.
Read 31 Oct 2026, 11:01
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 13%1–0 12%2–0 10%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 |
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Tipsport 1X2 · 30 Oct 2026, 15:01 to 31 Oct 2026, 15:01
| <1 |
| <1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 4 | 2 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Millwall and 5 for Derby.
Tips and posts about Millwall vs Derby. Free, no money played here. Community rules
Nobody gave a tip on this match.
Tips closed at kickoff.
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