Spain · LaLiga · 18 Oct 2026, 20:00
4 – 1
SevillaWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Biggest gap to the market: a draw, 17.0% for the model against 14.5% implied by Tipsport's odds of 6.90 (+2.5 pp). Above our 2 pp minimum, but no tip was published.
Read 18 Oct 2026, 15:00
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely2–0 11%2–1 9%3–0 9%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 3 | <1 |
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Tipsport 1X2 · 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 18 Oct 2026, 20:00
| <1 |
| <1 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Real Madrid and 5 for Sevilla.
Tips and posts about Real Madrid vs Sevilla. Free, no money played here. Community rules
Nobody gave a tip on this match.
Tips closed at kickoff.
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