Europe · Europa League · 5 Nov 2026, 17:45

Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Upcoming · kicks off 17:45

Our callLyon win or drawDouble chance · Betano

Odds1.93

Stake0.5u

RiskLow

Confidence1/5

Market (odds)51.8%

Our model61.4%

Edge+9.6 pp

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:17
Final checkDue about 16:30

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 4 Nov 2026, 09:17

Lyon or draw at 1.93: the model has it at 61%, the price implies 52%

Model61%Lyon or draw

Why we make this call

Lyon or draw at 1.93: the model has it at 61%, the price implies 52%. Model 61% for Lyon or a draw against 52% in the 1.93 price: a gap of 9.6 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model 61% for Lyon or a draw against 52% in the 1.93 price: a gap of 9.6 pp.
2The model sees the two sides level (39% / 23% / 38%); the market has Real Sociedad at 52%.
3In the table Lyon are 12th and Real Sociedad 14th.

The evidence

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 4 Nov 2026, 17:46 to 5 Nov 2026, 05:51

FirstLatestChange

Real Sociedad1.811.69-0.12

Draw4.104.30+0.20

Lyon4.254.85+0.60

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

	Real Sociedad	Lyon
Goals per game	2.7	1.7
Shots on target	4.7	5.3
Big chances	3.7	2.3
Big chances missed	2.0	1.3
Goals conceded	1.0	2.0
Tackles	16.0	13.0

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	5	3	1	<1
1	5	10	8	5	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Real Sociedad	Lyon
Goals per game	2.7	1.7
Shots on target	4.7	5.3
Big chances	3.7	2.3
Big chances missed	2.0	1.3
Goals conceded	1.0	2.0
Tackles	16.0	13.0

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	5	3	1	<1
1	5	10	8	5	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	5	3	1	<1
1	5	10	8	5	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Odds movement

The match

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Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Odds movement

The match

Community

Tips

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Opportunities

Market and model

What the model expects (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Other markets: model against the odds (2)

Team comparison

Competition profile so far

Attack and defence per game

Other markets: model against the odds

Other markets: model against the odds (2)

Most likely scores

Competition profile so far

Attack and defence per game

What the model expects (1X2)

Goal markets according to the model

Model

Betano price

Gap

Expected goals

Expected goals

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Community

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	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	5	3	1	<1
1	5	10	8	5	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1