What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Post-match review24 Oct 2026, 18:39
Vitoria 5-0 Maritimo: the drop was right, Vitoria created and Maritimo did not
1Result 5-0, with four goals after the break. It was 1-0 at half time.
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.78, Maritimo 0.52. Shots 16 to 10, on target 8 to 2.
3Big chances 3 to 0. The model gave Maritimo 23.2% at 6.14; they lost heavily.
4The dossier dropped the match, so no tip was at stake.
What we learn
Vitoria finishing was the stated risk: it did not hold, 1.78 xG gave five goals.
The case that Vitoria create more and concede less was confirmed.
Five goals from 1.78 xG is above the chances: do not read it as a new level.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Vitoria GuimaraesMaritimo
1.70Goals the model expected1.07
1.78Expected goals in the match (xG)0.52
5Goals scored0
Vitoria: expected line-up
Did not start: Zych, Balieiro, Doucet, Arcanjo. Started, not expected: Lucas Furtado, Mukendi B., Sidibe A., Silva G..
7/11expected starters who started
Maritimo: expected line-up
Did not start: Bouzaidi. Started, not expected: Tavares T..
10/11expected starters who started
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 10:15
✓Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 10:21
3Final checkNot needed
Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 23 Oct 2026, 10:21
Maritimo at 6.14 is a gap the data do not support: Vitoria create more and concede less
Model23%Maritimo to win
Market17%Maritimo to win, margin out
Goals a game0.6 / 1.1Vitoria / Maritimo
Big chances a game2.8 / 1.8Vitoria / Maritimo
Goals conceded1.3 / 1.8Vitoria / Maritimo
Out or doubtful1 / 1Vitoria / Maritimo
1Model: Maritimo 23%, market 17% (Tipsport 6.14). The model reads league ratings only.
2Vitoria create 2.8 big chances a game against 1.8 and concede 1.3 against 1.8.
3Vitoria score only 0.6 a game despite missing 2.4 big chances: finishing is their problem.
4Nothing concrete favours Maritimo, and a safer line on their side has no gap: dropped.
Opportunities
Vitoria are 15th with 5 points and have missed 2.4 big chances a game.
Maritimo concede 1.8 a game and face 3.8 saves a game.
Risks
Vitoria score 0.6 a game: a goalless or low-scoring home game is real.
Maritimo have lost 3 of their last 5 and conceded 14 in 8.
Vitoria miss Alioune Ndoye (suspended); Maritimo only Yellu Santiago.
Eight games each: season numbers are noisy.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests; a 7 pp gap is treated as noise.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Vitoria Guimaraes winmarket 63% · model 52%
Drawmarket 25% · model 25%
Maritimo winmarket 17% · model 23%
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight games each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Vitoria4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.50
6.5Jakupović
6.4Camara
6.7
Where they stand
Standing and context
Liga Portugal after eight matches each.
Metric
Vitoria
Maritimo
Position
15th, 5 pts
11th-12th, 8 pts
Record
1W 2D 5L (5:10)
2W 2D 4L (9:14)
Last five
L D L D L
L L L D L
Manager
Tiago Margarido
Mitchell van der Gaag
Referee
Diogo Rosa
6.34 cards a game
Screening · 10:15 · Candidate: Maritimo to win at 6.14, +7.0 pp against the market
Maritimo to win: model 23.2% against 15.6% in the market, odds 6.14.
A gap of 7.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 22 Oct 2026, 20:45 to 23 Oct 2026, 20:45
5 – 0 
Maritimo