England · Championship · 20 Oct 2026, 19:45

Wolves 1 – 1 Portsmouth

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 1–1

Our reportDropped: Wolves create more and Portsmouth's long injury list goes against the model's gapRead it →

Key moments

WolvesPortsmouth

James J. (assist Lopez F.)⚽62'
86'⚽Devlin T.

All events

Wolves

Wolves vs Portsmouth prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:11
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 10:14
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 20 Oct 2026, 10:14

Dropped: Wolves create more and Portsmouth's long injury list goes against the model's gap

Market17%Portsmouth, without the margin
Model23%Portsmouth
Big chances a game3.0 / 1.8Wolves / Portsmouth, 10 matches
XI average rating6.7 / 6.7Wolves / Portsmouth, expected starters
Rest4 / 3 daysWolves / Portsmouth
Out or doubtful5 / 12Wolves / Portsmouth

1Market: Portsmouth 17% (Tipsport 5.67, margin out). Model: 23%, a 6 pp gap from league ratings only.
2Wolves make 3.0 big chances a game to Portsmouth's 1.8 and score 1.8 a game to 1.3.
3Portsmouth have 12 players out, among them striker Colby Bishop and centre-backs Shaughnessy and Ogilvie.
4The data lean towards Wolves, not Portsmouth: the model's gap is not supported. Dropped.

Opportunities

Wolves lost two of their last three league games, one 1-3 at home to Bolton as 70% favourites.
Wolves are without Raúl Jiménez (7.22 rating) and Adam Armstrong up front.

Risks

Portsmouth's 12 absences, two first-choice centre-backs among them, are not in the model's ratings.
No expected goals for this league: the read rests on shots, chances and ratings.
Portsmouth's win at Norwich had a 20% chance by the odds: recent results flatter them.
Line-ups not settled: Wolves' full-backs and Portsmouth's striker are still open.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests: a gap like this is treated as noise.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Wolves winmarket 62% · model 52%

Drawmarket 25% · model 24%

Portsmouth winmarket 18% · model 23%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Ten league matches each.

Recent form and level of result

Recent matches

Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was; 'before' is the chance the odds gave a win, a draw and a defeat.

Wolves3W 1D 3L

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Wolves4-3-3 · avg rating 6.70

6.8Mané

6.2Neave

6.5

Where they stand

Standing and context

Championship, ten matches each.

Metric	Wolves	Portsmouth
Position	8th, 17 pts	13th, 14 pts
Record	5W 2D 3L (18:15)	4W 2D 4L (13:13)
Last five (league)	W W L L W	D D L W W
Last match	Fri 16/10, Burnley 1-2 Wolves	Sat 17/10, Norwich 0-1 Portsmouth
Manager	Cesar Peixoto	John Mousinho

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee, venue and history

Item	Detail
Referee	Edward Duckworth: 4.36 yellows, 0.19 reds a match
Venue	Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
Kick-off	Tue 20 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon
This fixture	Postponed twice, on 9 and 16 September
Last meeting	May 2010, Premier League

Screening · 09:11 · Candidate: Portsmouth to win at 5.61, +5.5 pp against the market

Portsmouth to win: model 23.3% against 17.1% in the market, odds 5.61.
A gap of 5.5 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 11%2–1 10%1–0 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Wolves goals, columns are Portsmouth goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	5	3	1	<1	<1
1	9	11	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	6	2	<1	<1
3	5	6	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Wolves and 5 for Portsmouth.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	5	3	1	<1	<1
1	9	11	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	6	2	<1	<1
3	5	6	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Wolves	Portsmouth
Goals per game	1.8	1.3
Shots on target	4.5	4.3
Big chances	3.0	1.8
Possession	54%	54%
Goals conceded	1.5	1.3
Duels won	52%	51%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	5	3	1	<1	<1
1	9	11	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	6	2	<1	<1
3	5	6	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

After the match

What we expected against what happened

More matches on Tuesday, 20 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Tuesday, 20 Oct 2026

1st Half0–0

2nd Half1–1

Line-ups

Wolves

Starting line-up

Portsmouth

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

Wolves: expected line-up

Portsmouth: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Recent form and level of result

Recent matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee, venue and history

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Portsmouth to win, Tipsport

Passing, finishing and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	5	3	1	<1	<1
1	9	11	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	6	2	<1	<1
3	5	6	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1