Portugal · Liga Portugal · 19 Oct 2026, 20:15

Braga 1 – 2 Gil Vicente

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 0–2

Our reportAdvance: equal records and a tighter defence back the model gap on Gil Vicente, no xG to confirmRead it →

Key moments

BragaGil Vicente

Victor P.⚽33'
49'⚽Walace Franca (assist Murilo de Souza)
72'⚽Travassos (Own goal)

Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 14:39
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:39

Advance: equal records and a tighter defence back the model gap on Gil Vicente, no xG to confirm

Market16%Gil Vicente win, margin in
Model22.2%Gil Vicente win
Points11 / 11Braga / Gil Vicente, 7 matches
Goals against8 / 5Braga / Gil Vicente
Big chances2.9 / 2.0per game, Braga / Gil Vicente
Out or doubtful1 / 2Braga / Gil Vicente

1Model: Gil Vicente 22.2% against 16.0% from the price (6.24 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 6.2 pp.
2Both sides have 11 points from seven, yet the price makes Braga a clear favourite.
3Gil Vicente concede 0.7 a game with 4 clean sheets; Braga concede 1.1.
4Braga lost 0-3 in Copenhagen and 1-3 to Sporting: the final check decides.

Opportunities

Same record (3W 2D 2L), but Gil Vicente have conceded 5 goals and Braga 8.
Braga come off two defeats, the last on Thursday in Europe, with four days of rest.
Gil Vicente have not lost in their last two and won 1-0 at Moreirense on 9 October.

Risks

No xG data for this league: the read rests on goals and shot counts from seven matches.
Braga create more (4.3 shots on target, 2.9 big chances a game) and hold 58% of the ball.
At 6.24 Gil Vicente win about one match in five even on the model: most bets lose.
The model gives Gil Vicente under 35%: high risk, and it has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Braga winmarket 63% · model 51%

Drawmarket 25% · model 27%

Gil Vicente winmarket 16% · model 22%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.

Braga4W 2D 3L

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Braga3-4-2-1 · avg rating 6.64

6.7Víctor

6.7Horta

6.4

Where they stand

Standing and context

Liga Portugal after seven matches each.

Metric	Braga	Gil Vicente
Record	3W 2D 2L (8:8)	3W 2D 2L (6:5)
Points	11	11
Last match	Thu 15/10, København 3-0 Braga	Fri 09/10, Moreirense 0-1 Gil Vicente (latest league match)
Manager	Carlos Vicens
Referee	Fábio Veríssimo: 5.8 yellows a match
Venue	Estádio Municipal de Braga
Kick-off	Mon 19 Oct, 20:15 Lisbon

Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Gil Vicente to win at 6.24, +6.2 pp against the market

Gil Vicente to win: model 22.2% against 15.3% in the market, odds 6.24.
A gap of 6.2 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 13%1–0 12%2–0 10%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Braga goals, columns are Gil Vicente goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	5	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Braga and 5 for Gil Vicente.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	5	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Braga	Gil Vicente
Goals per game	1.1	0.9
Shots on target	4.3	3.7
Big chances	2.9	2.0
Possession	58%	55%
Goals conceded	1.1	0.7
Duels won	52%	46%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	5	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

After the match

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

Key moments

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

All events

1st Half1–0

2nd Half0–2

Line-ups

Braga

Starting line-up

Gil Vicente

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Braga: expected line-up

Gil Vicente: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Efficiency and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	12	13	6	2	<1	<1
2	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
3	5	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1