Turkey · Süper Lig · 19 Oct 2026, 18:00

Trabzonspor 2 – 0 Besiktas

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 1–0

Our reportDrop: a 2 pp gap is too small, and the data only agree with the priceRead it →

Key moments

TrabzonsporBesiktas

Tufan O.⚽21'
Salah M. (assist Franculino)⚽71'

All events

Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor vs Besiktas prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:31
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:31

Drop: a 2 pp gap is too small, and the data only agree with the price

Market41%Trabzonspor win, margin in
Model43.1%Trabzonspor win
Goals against5 / 8Trabzonspor / Beşiktaş, 7 matches
Big chances4.6 / 2.7per game, Trabzonspor / Beşiktaş
Out or doubtful6 / 2Trabzonspor / Beşiktaş
Rest4 / 4 daysboth played on Thursday

1Model: Trabzonspor 43.1% against 41.1% from the price (2.43 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 2.0 pp.
2Trabzonspor concede less (0.7 against 1.1 a game) and create more big chances (4.6 against 2.7).
3But they miss their striker and a first-choice midfielder; Beşiktaş miss two creators.
4The data lean the same way as the price, so there is no edge to back: dropped.

Opportunities

Both sides play on four days of rest; Trabzonspor are at home with the better defensive record.

Risks

No xG data for this league: the picture rests on goals and shot counts from seven matches.
Trabzonspor have five players out and one doubtful, including the suspended Kabasakal and Onuachu.
Beşiktaş have the ball more (61.9% against 54.7%) and conceded only 8 goals.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests, so a 2 pp gap is treated as noise.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Trabzonspor winmarket 41% · model 43%

Drawmarket 28% · model 25%

Besiktas winmarket 40% · model 32%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.

Trabzonspor5W 0D 5L

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Trabzonspor4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.91

7.3Djú

6.9Şimşir

7.1

Where they stand

Standing and context

Süper Lig after seven matches each.

Metric	Trabzonspor	Beşiktaş
Record	4W 1D 2L	5W 0D 2L
Points	13	15
Last match	Thu 15/10, KuPS 2-4 Trabzonspor	Thu 15/10, Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş
Referee	Cihan Aydin: 4.1 yellows, 0.23 reds a match
Venue	Papara Park, Trabzon
Kick-off	Mon 19 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Trabzonspor to win at 2.43, +2.0 pp against the market

Trabzonspor to win: model 43.1% against 37.9% in the market, odds 2.43.
A gap of 2.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 11%2–1 9%1–2 8%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Trabzonspor goals, columns are Besiktas goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Trabzonspor and 5 for Besiktas.

	Trabzonspor	Besiktas
Goals per game	2.3	2.3
Shots on target	6.7	6.3
Big chances	4.6	2.7
Possession	55%	62%
Goals conceded	0.7	1.1
Duels won	53%	50%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

After the match

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

1st Half1–0

2nd Half1–0

Line-ups

Trabzonspor

Starting line-up

Besiktas

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Trabzonspor: expected line-up

Beşiktaş: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Efficiency and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1