What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Post-match review20 Oct 2026, 10:17
Tottenham won 3-1: dropping Coventry at 5.79 was right
1The model had Coventry at 29.4% at 5.79, a 12.1 pp gap; we dropped it as Tottenham were behind their xG.
2Tottenham won 3-1 on 0.86 xG to 0.81, with 5 shots on target to 1 and 65% of the ball.
3Coventry's one shot on target was their goal, on 0.19 xG on target.
What we learn
The drop held: the side behind its xPTS won, and the biggest gap of the day was the wrong one.
Big gaps on long-priced away sides keep failing the data check: 12 pp here was noise.
A low-xG match (1.67 in all) still had four goals: finishing, not chances, made the score.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
TottenhamCoventry
1.57Goals the model expected1.23
0.86Expected goals in the match (xG)0.81
3Goals scored1
Tottenham: expected line-up
Did not start: Udogie, Fernandes, Sávio. Started, not expected: Adarabioyo T., Marmoush O., Robertson A..
8/11expected starters who started
Coventry: expected line-up
Did not start: Mason-Clark. Started, not expected: Sakamoto T..
10/11expected starters who started
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
✓Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:35
3Final checkNot needed
Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:35
Drop: Tottenham are unlucky on points and better on xG, so the Coventry gap goes against the data
Market17%Coventry win, margin in
Model29.4%Coventry win
xG per game1.31 / 1.11Tottenham / Coventry, 6 matches
Points vs xPTS-4.7 / +0.5Tottenham / Coventry
Out or doubtful8 / 4Tottenham / Coventry
Rest9 / 7 daysTottenham / Coventry
1Model: Coventry 29.4% against 17.3% from the price (5.79 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 12.1 pp.
2Tottenham have 3 points where xG expects 7.7; Coventry have 6 on 5.5.
3Tottenham create 1.31 xG a game against 1.11 and concede 1.68 against 1.80.
4The data favour the home side more than the model does: dropped.
Opportunities
Coventry won their last two (4-1 against Newcastle on Monday) and are set to name the same XI.
Risks
Six matches per team: xG and xPTS gaps are noisy.
Tottenham have five out and three doubtful, including the suspended Bentancur, and scored only 3 goals.
Coventry have 38% of the ball and clear 30.7 times a game: they absorb pressure, not control.
The model gives Coventry under 35%: high risk, and it has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Tottenham winmarket 65% · model 45%
Drawmarket 21% · model 26%
Coventry winmarket 17% · model 29%
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Six matches each.
Underlying quality
Expected goals per game
xG per game this season, six matches each.
TottenhamCoventry
1.31xG for1.11
1.68xG against1.80
Points against expectation
Tottenham are almost five points behind their xG; Coventry are level.
Recent form and level of result
Last ten matches
Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.
Tottenham2W 4D 4L
W
D
L
W
L
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Tottenham4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.57
6.2Solanke
7.2Sávio
6.4
Where they stand
Standing and context
Premier League after six matches each.
Metric
Tottenham
Coventry
Record
0W 3D 3L (3:9)
2W 0D 4L (5:11)
Points
3
6
Last match
Sat 10/10, Man Utd 1-1 Tottenham
Mon 12/10, Coventry 4-1 Newcastle
Manager
Roberto De Zerbi
Frank Lampard
Referee
Andy Madley: 3.1 yellows a match
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Coventry to win at 5.79, +12.1 pp against the market
Coventry to win: model 29.4% against 16.7% in the market, odds 5.79.
A gap of 12.1 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 19 Oct 2026, 20:01
3 – 1 
Coventry