Italy · Serie A · 19 Oct 2026, 19:45

Parma 0 – 3 Torino

Finished1st Half 0–2 · 2nd Half 0–1

Our reportDrop: Parma have the weakest underlying numbers of the pair, so the gap goes against the dataRead it →

Key moments

ParmaTorino

4'⚽Simeone G. (Belghali R.)
24'⚽Adams C.
69'⚽Simeone G. (assist Belghali R.)

All events

ParmaTorino

Parma vs Torino prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:33
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:33

Drop: Parma have the weakest underlying numbers of the pair, so the gap goes against the data

Market30%Parma win, margin in
Model34.5%Parma win
xG per game0.78 / 1.24Parma / Torino, 6 matches
xG against per game2.12 / 1.38Parma / Torino
Points vs xPTS+0.5 / -0.6Parma / Torino
Rest9 / 7 daysParma / Torino

1Model: Parma 34.5% against 30.2% from the price (3.31 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 4.3 pp.
2Parma create 0.78 xG a game and concede 2.12; Torino 1.24 and 1.38.
3Both have points close to their xPTS (Parma 4 on 3.5, Torino 7 on 7.6): no luck to hand back.
4The data favour Torino, not the side the model backs: dropped.

Opportunities

Parma are at home after nine days of rest, against seven for Torino.

Risks

Six matches per team: xG gaps are noisy.
Parma have no clean sheet and conceded 10 goals in six matches.
Parma lose striker Elphege and have two more doubts (Nicolussi Caviglia, Almqvist).
The model has not beaten the market in backtests, and it gives Parma under 35%: high risk.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Parma winmarket 30% · model 35%

Drawmarket 32% · model 30%

Torino winmarket 40% · model 36%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Six matches each.

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

xG per game this season, six matches each.

ParmaTorino

0.78xG for1.24

2.12xG against1.38

Points against expectation

Both sides are close to what their chances say.

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.

Parma2W 2D 6L

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Parma3-5-2 · avg rating 6.41

6.5Romero

6.3Touré

6.6

Where they stand

Standing and context

Serie A after six matches each.

Metric	Parma	Torino
Record	1W 1D 4L (4:10)	2W 1D 3L (7:9)
Points	4	7
Last match	Sat 10/10, Inter 3-0 Parma	Mon 12/10, Torino 2-1 Udinese
Referee	Giovanni Ayroldi: 5.5 yellows a match
Venue	Ennio Tardini, Parma (27,906)
Kick-off	Mon 19 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Parma to win at 3.31, +4.3 pp against the market

Parma to win: model 34.5% against 29.4% in the market, odds 3.31.
A gap of 4.3 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 14%0–1 11%0–0 11%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Parma goals, columns are Torino goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	11	7	3	<1	<1
1	11	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	6	8	4	2	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Parma and 5 for Torino.

	Parma	Torino
Goals per game	0.7	1.2
Shots on target	2.7	3.2
Big chances	1.3	2.5
Possession	43%	51%
Goals conceded	1.7	1.5
Duels won	47%	53%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	11	7	3	<1	<1
1	11	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	6	8	4	2	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	11	7	3	<1	<1
1	11	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	6	8	4	2	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

After the match

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

1st Half0–2

2nd Half0–1

Line-ups

Parma

Starting line-up

Torino

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Parma: expected line-up

Torino: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Efficiency and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	11	7	3	<1	<1
1	11	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	6	8	4	2	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1