England · Premier League · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00

Crystal Palace 0 – 2 Newcastle

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 0–2

Our reportPalace to win looks worth a final check: more big chances, Newcastle miss Elanga, but a leaky defenceRead it →

Key moments

Crystal PalaceNewcastle

47'⚽Osula W. (Murphy J.)
58'⚽Barnes H. (assist Dedic A.)

All events

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 18:54
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:54

Palace to win looks worth a final check: more big chances, Newcastle miss Elanga, but a leaky defence

Model38.9%Palace win
Market33.3%Palace win, margin out
Big chances3.1 / 1.7Palace / Newcastle, per game
Goals conceded2.4 / 2.0Palace / Newcastle, per game
Out or doubtful5 / 4Palace / Newcastle

1Model gives Palace 38.9%; the market 33.3% (margin out), Tipsport 2.92.
2Palace create 3.1 big chances a game against 1.7; shots on target are level.
3Newcastle lose Elanga (best rating 7.11), Ramsey and Livramento.
4Against: Palace concede 2.4 a game (17 in seven). Marginal: final check.

Opportunities

Newcastle are without Elanga, Ramsey and Livramento: three regulars out.
Palace make 20.7 tackles a game against 13.6, and Newcastle have conceded two penalties.

Risks

Palace have conceded 17 in 7 (2.4 a game) and won two of the last five.
Palace miss 2.3 big chances a game: creation is not turning into goals.
Strand Larsen and Timber are doubtful; both XIs are predicted.
Seven matches each: noisy. Other markets not yet compared with the model.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Crystal Palace winmarket 34% · model 39%

Drawmarket 26% · model 25%

Newcastle winmarket 42% · model 36%

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Crystal Palace3-4-2-1 · avg rating 6.58

6.6Strand Larsen

6.5Pino

6.6

Where they stand

Standing and context

Premier League, seven matches each.

Metric	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Position	16th, 7 pts	13th, 8 pts
Goals	9 for, 17 against	10 for, 14 against
Last five league results	W L D W L	D L W L L
Manager	Pierre Sage	Matthias Jaissle
Referee	Paul Tierney	0.12 / 3.26 cards

Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Crystal Palace to win at 2.92, +4.7 pp against the market

Crystal Palace to win: model 38.9% against 33.3% in the market, odds 2.92.
A gap of 4.7 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	<1	<1
1	7	12	8	4	2	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	4	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Crystal Palace	Newcastle
Goals per game	1.3	1.4
Shots on target	3.7	3.6
Big chances	3.1	1.7
Possession	43%	52%
Goals conceded	2.4	2.0
Duels won	51%	50%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	<1	<1
1	7	12	8	4	2	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	4	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	<1	<1
1	7	12	8	4	2	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	4	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

After the match

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

1st Half0–0

2nd Half0–2

Line-ups

Crystal Palace

Starting line-up

Newcastle

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Crystal Palace: expected line-up

Newcastle: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Defending and discipline

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	<1	<1
1	7	12	8	4	2	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	4	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1