England · Premier League · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00

Hull 1 – 1 Brentford

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 0–1

Our reportDropped: a 20 pp gap on Hull is a model blind spot, Brentford are better on every attacking numberRead it →

Key moments

HullBrentford

McBurnie O. (penalty)⚽24'
63'⚽Ouattara Da. (assist Thiago I.)

All events

HullBrentford

1st Half1–0

Hull vs Brentford prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:54

Dropped: a 20 pp gap on Hull is a model blind spot, Brentford are better on every attacking number

Model41.9%Hull win
Market21.0%Hull win, margin out
Goals per game1.1 / 1.9Hull / Brentford
Big chances1.7 / 3.1Hull / Brentford, per game
Out or doubtful10 / 5Hull / Brentford

1Model gives Hull 41.9%; the market 21.0% (margin out), Tipsport 4.63.
2Brentford score 1.9 a game against 1.1 and create 3.1 big chances against 1.7.
3Hull have 31% possession and are winless in five; ten Hull players are out or doubtful.
4Nothing concrete supports Hull at that price: dropped.

Opportunities

Brentford miss Janelt and Yarmoliuk (suspended) and Milambo (injured): midfield is thin.
Brentford have two red cards this season and 14.7 fouls a game.

Risks

Hull: Gyabi, Matazo, Hughes, Ansah, Butland, Targett and Mendy out; three more doubtful.
Hull manage 3.4 shots on target a game; Brentford 4.1.
A 20 pp gap is more often a blind spot than value.
Seven matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Hull winmarket 22% · model 42%

Drawmarket 24% · model 26%

Brentford winmarket 57% · model 32%

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Hull5-4-1 · avg rating 6.66

6.7McBurnie

6.2Thomas

6.7

Where they stand

Standing and context

Premier League, seven matches each.

Metric	Hull	Brentford
Goals	8 for, 7 against	13 for, 8 against
Position	11th, 9 pts	7th, 10 pts
Manager	Sergej Jakirović	Keith Andrews
Referee	Robert Jones	0.10 / 3.60 cards
Possession	31.3%	44.7%

Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Hull to win at 4.63, +20.4 pp against the market

Hull to win: model 41.9% against 21.0% in the market, odds 4.63.
A gap of 20.4 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
A gap of 20.4 pp is more often a blind spot of the model than value: check what it cannot see.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	5	2	<1	<1
1	9	12	8	3	1	<1
2	7	9	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	5	2	<1	<1
1	9	12	8	3	1	<1
2	7	9	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Hull	Brentford
Goals per game	1.1	1.9
Shots on target	3.4	4.1
Big chances	1.7	3.1
Possession	31%	45%
Goals conceded	1.0	1.1
Duels won	50%	47%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	5	2	<1	<1
1	9	12	8	3	1	<1
2	7	9	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

After the match

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

2nd Half0–1

Line-ups

Hull

Starting line-up

Brentford

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Hull: expected line-up

Brentford: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Defending and discipline

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	5	2	<1	<1
1	9	12	8	3	1	<1
2	7	9	6	2	<1	<1
3	3	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1