England · Premier League · 25 Oct 2026, 16:30

Sunderland 0 – 0 Leeds

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 0–0

Our reportDropped: Sunderland are 20th, concede 2.0 a game and the data favour Leeds despite the modelRead it →

Key moments

No goals or red cards.

All events

SunderlandLeeds

1st Half0–0

29'🟨Ampadu E.
Mandava R.🟨

Sunderland vs Leeds prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:54

Dropped: Sunderland are 20th, concede 2.0 a game and the data favour Leeds despite the model

Model36.6%Sunderland win
Market31.7%Sunderland win, margin out
Points4 / 10Sunderland / Leeds, 7 matches
Goals conceded2.0 / 0.9Sunderland / Leeds, per game
Out or doubtful6 / 5Sunderland / Leeds

1Model gives Sunderland 36.6%; the market 31.7% (margin out), Tipsport 3.07.
2Sunderland have 4 points, 6 goals scored and 14 conceded; Leeds 10 points, 9 and 6.
3Sunderland create more big chances (3.0 v 2.0) but miss 2.3 a game; shots on target are level.
4Their expected XI rates 6.4 against 6.9, and three Sunderland players are out: dropped.

Opportunities

Sunderland create 3.0 big chances a game against 2.0 for Leeds.
Leeds are without Mateo Joseph, and Rodon, James and Calvert-Lewin are doubtful.

Risks

Sunderland have two red cards this season and Danso is out.
Leeds concede 0.9 a game against 2.0, with two clean sheets to one.
Out for Sunderland: Ballard, Mundle, Danso; doubtful: Meunier, Brobbey, Isidor.
Seven matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Sunderland winmarket 33% · model 37%

Drawmarket 31% · model 29%

Leeds winmarket 39% · model 35%

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Sunderland4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.38

6.2Isidor

6.2Fofana

6.7

Where they stand

Standing and context

Premier League, seven matches each.

Metric	Sunderland	Leeds
Position	20th, 4 pts	8th, 10 pts
Goals	6 for, 14 against	9 for, 6 against
Red cards	2	0
Manager	Régis Le Bris	Daniel Farke
Referee	Stuart Attwell	0.14 / 3.52 cards

Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Sunderland to win at 3.07, +4.0 pp against the market

Sunderland to win: model 36.6% against 31.7% in the market, odds 3.07.
A gap of 4.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	10	6	3	<1	<1
1	10	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	7	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	10	6	3	<1	<1
1	10	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	7	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Sunderland	Leeds
Goals per game	0.9	1.3
Shots on target	4.0	4.0
Big chances	3.0	2.0
Possession	48%	47%
Goals conceded	2.0	0.9
Duels won	52%	51%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	10	6	3	<1	<1
1	10	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	7	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half0–0

After the match

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

1st Half0–0

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

2nd Half0–0

Line-ups

Sunderland

Starting line-up

Leeds

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Sunderland: expected line-up

Leeds: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Defending and discipline

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	10	6	3	<1	<1
1	10	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	7	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	3	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1