Italy · Serie A · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00

Genoa 1 – 0 Venezia

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 0–0

Our reportDropped: Genoa score 0.7 a game and Venezia create more, so the 2.9 pp gap has no supportRead it →

Key moments

GenoaVenezia

Ellertsson M. E. (El Shaarawy S.)⚽25'

All events

GenoaVenezia

1st Half1–0

Ellertsson M. E. (El Shaarawy S.)⚽25'

2nd Half

Genoa vs Venezia prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:50
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:50

Dropped: Genoa score 0.7 a game and Venezia create more, so the 2.9 pp gap has no support

Model49.6%Genoa win
Market44.7%Genoa win, margin out
Goals per game0.7 / 0.9Genoa / Venezia
Big chances1.3 / 2.7Genoa / Venezia, per game
Out or doubtful5 / 5Genoa / Venezia

1Model gives Genoa 49.6%; the market 44.7% (margin out), Tipsport 2.14.
2Venezia have more shots on target (4.3 v 2.9) and big chances (2.7 v 1.3).
3Genoa are 17th with four points and score 0.7 a game; Venezia 20th, 0.9.
4Nothing concrete favours Genoa at this price: dropped.

Opportunities

Genoa concede 1.9 a game against 2.3 and play at home.
Venezia have won one of their last five league games.

Risks

Genoa have no clean sheet in seven and have scored five goals.
Venezia hold 54% of the ball against 44%.
Doubts: Ehizibue and Amorim (Genoa), Correia (Venezia); both XIs are predicted.
Seven matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Genoa winmarket 47% · model 50%

Drawmarket 30% · model 26%

Venezia winmarket 28% · model 24%

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Genoa3-5-2 · avg rating 6.40

6.7Osmajić

6.2Vítinha

6.4

Where they stand

Standing and context

Serie A, seven matches each.

Metric	Genoa	Venezia
Position	17th, 4 pts	20th, 3 pts
Goals	5 for, 13 against	6 for, 16 against
Last five	L D L W L	L L L L W
Manager	Daniele De Rossi	Davide Nicola
Referee	Simone Sozza	0.19 / 4.57 cards

Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Genoa to win at 2.14, +2.9 pp against the market

Genoa to win: model 49.6% against 44.7% in the market, odds 2.14.
A gap of 2.9 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	11	12	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	5	2	<1	<1
3	5	5	3	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	11	12	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	5	2	<1	<1
3	5	5	3	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Genoa	Venezia
Goals per game	0.7	0.9
Shots on target	2.9	4.3
Big chances	1.3	2.7
Possession	44%	54%
Goals conceded	1.9	2.3
Duels won	51%	50%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	11	12	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	5	2	<1	<1
3	5	5	3	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

2nd Half

After the match

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

2nd Half

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Line-ups

Genoa

Starting line-up

Venezia

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Genoa: expected line-up

Venezia: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Defending and discipline

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	7	4	1	<1	<1
1	11	12	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	5	2	<1	<1
3	5	5	3	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1