Italy · Serie A · 25 Oct 2026, 11:30

Inter 2 – 1 Fiorentina

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 2–1

Key moments

InterFiorentina

65'⚽Jimenez A. (assist Fagioli N.)
Thuram M. (assist Diouf A.)⚽
Zielinski P. (penalty)⚽

All events

InterFiorentina

At a glance

InterFiorentina

3.40Expected goals (xG)0.23

63%Ball possession37%

33Total shots7

11Shots on target2

Statistics

InterFiorentina

Inter vs Fiorentina: result, stats and line-ups · Oddvise

Our analysis

Biggest gap to the market: Fiorentina to win, 13.5% for the model against 12.5% implied by Tipsport's odds of 8.01 (+1.1 pp). Our minimum for a call is 2 pp, so no call.

Read 25 Oct 2026, 10:02

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Inter winmarket 73% · model 68%

Drawmarket 18% · model 19%

Fiorentina winmarket 12% · model 14%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

2.38 - 0.98Inter - Fiorentina

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely2–0 10%2–1 10%1–1 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Inter goals, columns are Fiorentina goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	3	2	<1	<1	<1
1	8	9	4	1

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Inter 2 – 1 Fiorentina

Key moments

All events

At a glance

Statistics

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Inter 2 – 1 Fiorentina

Key moments

All events

At a glance

Statistics

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Community

Tips

Talk about it

1st Half0–0

2nd Half2–1

Line-ups

Inter

Starting line-up

Fiorentina

Starting line-up

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

Our analysis

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Odds movement

Community

Tips

Talk about it

Key moments

All events

At a glance

Statistics

After the match

What we expected against what happened

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

At a glance

Statistics

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

1st Half0–0

2nd Half2–1

Line-ups

Inter

Starting line-up

Fiorentina

Starting line-up

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

Our analysis

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Odds movement

Community

Tips

Talk about it