Spain · LaLiga · 19 Oct 2026, 20:00

Getafe 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano

Finished1st Half 0–1 · 2nd Half 1–0

Our reportDrop: a 2.9 pp gap on a side with the weaker attack, and the data lean to RayoRead it →

Key moments

GetafeRayo Vallecano

11'⚽Garcia A. (assist de Frutos J.)
Djene🟥28'
Satriano M. (assist Francho)⚽56'

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:37
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:37

Drop: a 2.9 pp gap on a side with the weaker attack, and the data lean to Rayo

Market32%Getafe win, margin in
Model34.9%Getafe win
xG per game0.80 / 1.30Getafe / Rayo
Points vs xPTS+1.2 / +0.3Getafe / Rayo
Goals against vs xGA10 / 16conceded: Getafe 13.7 / Rayo 13.0 expected
Out or doubtful6 / 2Getafe / Rayo

1Model: Getafe 34.9% against 31.9% from the price (3.13 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 2.9 pp.
2Getafe create 0.80 xG a game against 1.30 for Rayo; at the back it is close (1.71 and 1.86).
3Getafe have conceded 10 goals on 13.7 expected and have 8 points on 6.8 xPTS: some luck.
4The data do not back the gap: dropped.

Opportunities

Rayo have lost their first-choice goalkeeper (Batalla, fractured tibia) and Rațiu is doubtful.

Risks

Seven and eight matches played: xG and xPTS gaps are noisy.
Getafe have six out or doubtful, including Ünal, Mangala, Azón and Romero.
Getafe scored 4 goals in eight matches and have 37% of the ball.
The model gives Getafe under 35%: high risk, and it has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Getafe winmarket 32% · model 35%

Drawmarket 34% · model 32%

Rayo Vallecano winmarket 37% · model 33%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight and seven matches.

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

xG per game this season: Getafe eight matches, Rayo seven.

GetafeRayo Vallecano

0.80xG for1.30

1.71xG against1.86

Points against expectation

Getafe are slightly ahead of their xG; Rayo are level.

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.

Getafe3W 3D 4L

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Getafe3-4-2-1 · avg rating 6.44

6.6Satriano

7.0Terrats

6.5

Where they stand

Standing and context

LaLiga: Getafe eight matches, Rayo seven.

Metric	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
Record	2W 2D 4L (4:10)	2W 2D 3L (11:16)
Points	8	8
Last match	Thu 15/10, Craiova 1-1 Getafe	-
Referee	Jon Ander González Esteban: 4.5 yellows a match
Venue	Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe
Kick-off	Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Getafe to win at 3.13, +2.9 pp against the market

Getafe to win: model 34.9% against 31.1% in the market, odds 3.13.
A gap of 2.9 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 14%0–0 14%1–0 13%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Getafe goals, columns are Rayo Vallecano goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	12	7	2	<1	<1
1	13	14	7	2	<1	<1
2	7	7	3	1	<1	<1
3	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Getafe and 5 for Rayo Vallecano.

	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
Goals per game	0.5	1.6
Shots on target	2.5	4.6
Big chances	0.9	1.9
Possession	37%	49%
Goals conceded	1.3	2.3
Duels won	47%	48%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	12	7	2	<1	<1
1	13	14	7	2	<1	<1
2	7	7	3	1	<1	<1
3	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	12	7	2	<1	<1
1	13	14	7	2	<1	<1
2	7	7	3	1	<1	<1
3	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

After the match

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

Key moments

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Monday, 19 Oct 2026

All events

1st Half0–1

2nd Half1–0

Line-ups

Getafe

Starting line-up

Rayo Vallecano

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Getafe: expected line-up

Rayo Vallecano: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Efficiency and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	12	7	2	<1	<1
1	13	14	7	2	<1	<1
2	7	7	3	1	<1	<1
3	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1