Germany · 2. Bundesliga · 1 Nov 2026, 12:30
1 – 0 
Holstein KielWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Furth 1-0 Kiel: the under 2.5 tip landed on a late goal
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Under 2.5 goals: the model sees fewer goals than the price allows
Greuther Furth v Holstein Kiel: under 2.5 goals at 2.35. Model: under 2.5 goals 47.1%. The 2.35 price implies 42.6%: gap +4.6 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
Tipsport 1X2 · 31 Oct 2026, 12:31 to 1 Nov 2026, 12:31
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | <1 |
| 2 | 7 |
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out. The model is above the price on under 2.5 and both teams to score: no.
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine league games each.
Furth shoot more but concede more; Kiel keep games tighter.
One listed injury a day before kick-off; line-ups are predicted only.
No notable absences.
2. Bundesliga after nine matches each.
| Metric | Furth | Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th, 9 pts | 13th, 8 pts |
| Last five | D D L W L | L D L D W |
| Goals for-against | 12-16 | 10-11 |
| Red cards | 0 | 2 |
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Competition | 2. Bundesliga, round 10 |
| Kick-off | Sun 1 Nov, 12:30 Lisbon |
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out. The model is above the price on under 2.5 and both teams to score: no.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | <1 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Greuther Furth and 5 for Holstein Kiel.
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine league games each.
Furth shoot more but concede more; Kiel keep games tighter.
One listed injury a day before kick-off; line-ups are predicted only.
No notable absences.
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
2. Bundesliga after nine matches each.
| Metric | Furth | Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th, 9 pts | 13th, 8 pts |
| Last five | D D L W L | L D L D W |
| Goals for-against | 12-16 | 10-11 |
| Red cards | 0 | 2 |
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Competition | 2. Bundesliga, round 10 |
| Kick-off | Sun 1 Nov, 12:30 Lisbon |
| 9 |
| 6 |
| 3 |
| <1 |
| <1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Greuther Furth and 5 for Holstein Kiel.
Tips and posts about Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel. Free, no money played here. Community rules
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