England · Championship · 3 Nov 2026, 19:45
Derby vs Norwich
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Dropped: Derby are bottom-three with a long injury list, so the +5.3 pp gap is not trusted
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 13%1–2 8%2–1 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | <1 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 |
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin.
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker's margin.
Championship table before the match. Lower position is better.
As listed a day before the match.
Last five results, oldest first.
| Metric | Derby | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 23th | 15th |
| Points | 7 | 15 |
| Last five | D L L D L | L L L W W |
| 1 |
| <1 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 4 | <1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Derby and 5 for Norwich.
Reasons about Derby vs Norwich, not tips for sale. Community rules
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