Netherlands · Eredivisie · 25 Oct 2026, 13:30

PSV 1 – 1 Feyenoord

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 0–1

Our reportDropped: a 2 pp gap on PSV, and Feyenoord lead on attack and the XIRead it →

Key moments

PSVFeyenoord

Til G. (assist Geertruida L.)⚽21'
55'⚽Hadj Moussa A. (assist Valente L.)

All events

PSVFeyenoord

1st Half1–0

PSV vs Feyenoord prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:54

Dropped: a 2 pp gap on PSV, and Feyenoord lead on attack and the XI

Model50.1%PSV win
Market46.1%PSV win, margin out
Goals per game3.0 / 3.4PSV / Feyenoord
Points19 / 23PSV / Feyenoord, 9 matches
Out7 / 4PSV / Feyenoord

1Model gives PSV 50.1%; the market 46.1% (margin out), Tipsport 2.08.
2Feyenoord lead on goals (3.4 v 3.0 a game), big chances (4.9 v 3.9) and points.
3PSV have six players out and Mijnans may be suspended.
4A 2 pp gap is small and the data lean to Feyenoord: dropped.

Opportunities

PSV are unbeaten at home: three wins and a draw.
Feyenoord have four absences too, among them Bos and Nieuwkoop.

Risks

PSV: Pléa, Pepi, Lammers, Wanner, Schouten and van Bommel are out.
Feyenoord: 31 goals in 9 matches, 1st with 23 points against 19.
Mijnans (red card) may be suspended; the PSV XI is open.
Nine matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

PSV winmarket 48% · model 50%

Drawmarket 23% · model 21%

Feyenoord winmarket 33% · model 28%

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine matches each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

PSV4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.81

7.2Til

7.3Perišić

6.9

Where they stand

Standing and context

Eredivisie after nine matches each.

Metric	PSV	Feyenoord
Position	3rd, 19 pts	1st, 23 pts
Goals	27 for, 12 against	31 for, 10 against
Home record	3W 1D at home	-
Manager	Peter Bosz	Giovanni van Bronckhorst
Referee	Serdar Gozubuyuk	0.17 / 3.60 cards

Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: PSV to win at 2.08, +2.0 pp against the market

PSV to win: model 50.1% against 46.1% in the market, odds 2.08.
A gap of 2.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	3	3	2	<1	<1
1	5	8	6	3	1	<1
2	5	9	7	4	2	<1
3	4	6	5	3	1	<1
4	2	3	3	1	<1	<1
5	<1	1	1	<1	<1	<1

	PSV	Feyenoord
Goals per game	3.0	3.4
Shots on target	7.2	8.3
Big chances	3.9	4.9
Possession	61%	54%
Goals conceded	1.3	1.1
Duels won	52%	52%

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

After the match

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

2nd Half0–1

Line-ups

PSV

Starting line-up

Feyenoord

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

PSV: expected line-up

Feyenoord: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Results and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it