Netherlands · Eredivisie · 25 Oct 2026, 11:15

Sittard 1 – 0 Excelsior

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 1–0

Our reportDrop: Sittard's 3 pp gap is thin and the numbers behind it are mixedRead it →

Key moments

SittardExcelsior

Guth R. (Ihattaren M.)⚽

All events

SittardExcelsior

1st Half0–0

Sittard vs Excelsior prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:11
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:13
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 25 Oct 2026, 09:13

Drop: Sittard's 3 pp gap is thin and the numbers behind it are mixed

Model41%Sittard win
Market36%Sittard win at 2.66, margin included
Gap+3.0 ppbelow the level we trust
Points a game1.67 / 1.22Sittard / Excelsior, 9 matches
Big chances a game1.2 / 2.3Sittard / Excelsior
Rest7 / 9 daysSittard / Excelsior

1Model: Sittard 41%, Tipsport 2.66 (36% with margin): a 3 pp gap, below the level we trust.
2Sittard are ahead on points (1.67 against 1.22 a game) and Excelsior lost 4-0 on Friday 16 Oct.
3But Excelsior create more: 2.3 big chances a game against 1.2, and keep more of the ball.
4Dropped: the gap is small and the data do not clearly back it.

Opportunities

Excelsior are winless in five (D L D L L) after a 4-0 defeat at Heerenveen.
Sittard are 6th, Excelsior 12th; Sittard have 4 wins in 9 and play at home.

Risks

Excelsior create 2.3 big chances a game against 1.2 for Sittard.
Sittard concede 1.9 a game and have kept one clean sheet in nine.
Only the possible XI is known; no injury or suspension list was read.
Prices for the other markets (double chance, draw no bet, goals) were not read.
Nine matches each: the season numbers are noisy.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Sittard winmarket 40% · model 41%

Drawmarket 28% · model 25%

Excelsior winmarket 37% · model 34%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine matches each.

Where they stand

Standing and context

Eredivisie after nine matches each.

Metric	Sittard	Excelsior
Position	6th, 15 pts	12th, 11 pts
Record	4W 3D 2L (16:17)	3W 2D 4L (16:18)
Last five	W L W D D	D L D L L
Last match	Sun 18/10, NEC 2-2 Sittard	Fri 16/10, Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior
Manager	Danny Buijs	Ruben den Uil

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee and venue

Item	Detail
Referee	Ingmar Oostrom: 3.21 yellows, 0.16 reds a match
Venue	Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Kick-off	Sun 25 Oct, 11:15 Lisbon

Screening · 09:11 · Candidate: Sittard to win at 2.66, +3.0 pp against the market

Sittard to win: model 40.6% against 35.9% in the market, odds 2.66.
A gap of 3.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 11%2–1 9%1–2 8%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Sittard goals, columns are Excelsior goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	5	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Sittard and 5 for Excelsior.

	Sittard	Excelsior
Goals per game	1.8	1.8
Shots on target	4.4	4.0
Big chances	1.2	2.3
Possession	35%	43%
Goals conceded	1.9	2.0
Duels won	50%	47%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	5	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	5	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half0–0

After the match

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

1st Half0–0

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

2nd Half1–0

Line-ups

Sittard

Starting line-up

Excelsior

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Where they stand

Standing and context

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee and venue

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Results and defending

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	5	3	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1