Netherlands · Eredivisie · 25 Oct 2026, 15:45

Sparta Rotterdam 1 – 2 Ajax

Finished1st Half 1–2 · 2nd Half 0–0

Key moments

Sparta RotterdamAjax

22'⚽Ouazane A. (assist Brandt J.)
Toornstra J. (assist Babadi I.)⚽43'
⚽Arokodare T. (Brandt J.)

All events

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: result, stats and line-ups · Oddvise

Our analysis

Biggest gap to the market: Sparta Rotterdam to win, 24.4% for the model against 16.5% implied by Tipsport's odds of 6.06 (+8.0 pp). Above our 2 pp minimum, but no tip was published.

Read 25 Oct 2026, 14:00

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Sparta Rotterdam winmarket 17% · model 24%

Drawmarket 19% · model 23%

Ajax winmarket 69% · model 53%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.28 - 1.96Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 10%1–2 10%0–2 8%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns are Ajax goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	7	8	5	2	<1
1	5	10	10	6

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Sparta Rotterdam 1 – 2 Ajax

Key moments

All events

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Sparta Rotterdam 1 – 2 Ajax

Key moments

All events

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Community

Tips

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1st Half1–2

2nd Half0–0

Line-ups