Scotland · Scottish Premiership · 28 Oct 2026, 19:45
1 – 1 
HibernianWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
St. Mirren 1-1 Hibernian: not the model's main outcome
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Under 2.5 goals at 2.20: the market expects more goals than the model
Two-way markets without the margin; 1X2 without the margin. The pick's gap uses the raw price.
Scottish Premiership, round 11.
| Metric | St. Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 12th |
| Price 1X2 (bwin) | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
Under 2.5 goals at 2.20: the market expects more goals than the model. Model: under 2.5 goals 54.8% against 45.5% in the bwin price of 2.20: gap +9.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
Two-way markets without the margin; 1X2 without the margin. The pick's gap uses the raw price.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 13%0–1 10%1–0 9%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 |
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Scottish Premiership, round 11.
| Metric | St. Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 12th |
| Price 1X2 (bwin) | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Tipsport 1X2 · 27 Oct 2026, 19:46 to 28 Oct 2026, 19:46
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 13%0–1 10%1–0 9%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | <1 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for St. Mirren and 5 for Hibernian.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
| 1 |
| <1 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for St. Mirren and 5 for Hibernian.
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