Italy · Serie A · 28 Oct 2026, 17:30

AC Milan 2 – 4 Bologna

Finished1st Half 2–1 · 2nd Half 0–3

Our callBologna win or draw @ 2.25Won +0.63uSee why →

Key moments

AC MilanBologna

8'⚽Mbangula S. (assist Zortea N.)
Cisse A.⚽14'
Cisse A. (assist Tomori F.)⚽27'
60'⚽Bartesaghi D. (own goal)
62'

AC Milan vs Bologna prediction and betting tip · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:15
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 27 Oct 2026, 09:15

Bologna or draw at 2.25: the model rates AC Milan far below the market

Model45% / 55%AC Milan win / Bologna or draw
Price2.25Bologna or draw (X2), bwin
Gap+10.2 ppmodel 54.6% against 44.4% in the price
Expected goals1.48 - 1.10AC Milan - Bologna, model
Standing5th / 13th15 pts / 8 pts, goals 14:7 / 8:10
Out or doubtful10across both squads, line-ups predicted

1Model: Bologna or draw 54.6% against 44.4% in the bwin price of 2.25: gap +10.2 pp.
2The model gives AC Milan 45%, the market about 58%: that is the whole gap.
3Milan lead on goal difference (+7 against -2) and rating, so the gap is not backed by form.

Opportunities

If Milan's rotation or absences cost them, the draw and a Bologna win are underpriced.

Market and model

Other markets: model against the odds

Two-way markets without the margin; 1X2 without the margin. The pick's gap uses the raw price.

AC Milan winmarket 58% · model 45%

Drawmarket 25% · model 27%

Bologna winmarket 16% · model 28%

Under 2.5 goalsmarket 47% · model 52%

Both score: yesmarket 52% · model

Where they stand

Standing and context

Serie A, round 9.

Metric	AC Milan	Bologna
Position	5th, 15 pts	13th, 8 pts
Goals	14:7 in 7	8:10 in 8
Average rating	7.62	7.27
Manager	Rubén Amorim	Raffaele Palladino

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: AC Milan v Bologna, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced

Model: AC Milan 45.4%, draw 27.1%, Bologna 27.5%.
No full set of 1X2 prices is stored yet, so no gap can be measured here.
The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.

Why we make this call

Bologna or draw at 2.25: the model rates AC Milan far below the market. Model: Bologna or draw 54.6% against 44.4% in the bwin price of 2.25: gap +10.2 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model: Bologna or draw 54.6% against 44.4% in the bwin price of 2.25: gap +10.2 pp.
2The model gives AC Milan 45%, the market about 58%: that is the whole gap.
3Milan lead on goal difference (+7 against -2) and rating, so the gap is not backed by form.

The evidence

Other markets: model against the odds

Two-way markets without the margin; 1X2 without the margin. The pick's gap uses the raw price.

AC Milan winmarket 58% · model 45%

Drawmarket 25% · model 27%

Bologna winmarket 16% · model 28%

Under 2.5 goalsmarket 47% · model 52%

Both score: yesmarket 52% · model 52%

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 13%1–0 11%2–1 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are AC Milan goals, columns are Bologna goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Standing and context

Serie A, round 9.

Metric	AC Milan	Bologna
Position	5th, 15 pts	13th, 8 pts
Goals	14:7 in 7	8:10 in 8
Average rating	7.62	7.27
Manager	Rubén Amorim	Raffaele Palladino

Model

45% / 55%AC Milan win / Bologna or draw

Price

2.25Bologna or draw (X2), bwin

Gap

+10.2 ppmodel 54.6% against 44.4% in the price

Expected goals

1.48 - 1.10AC Milan - Bologna, model

Standing

5th / 13th15 pts / 8 pts, goals 14:7 / 8:10

Out or doubtful

10across both squads, line-ups predicted

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.48 - 1.1AC Milan - Bologna

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 13%1–0 11%2–1 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are AC Milan goals, columns are Bologna goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for AC Milan and 5 for Bologna.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

More matches on Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026

Key moments

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026

All events

1st Half2–1

2nd Half0–3

Line-ups

AC Milan

Starting line-up

Bologna

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

After the match

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Market and model

Other markets: model against the odds

Where they stand

Standing and context

Why we make this call

The evidence

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Standing and context

Model

Price

Gap

Expected goals

Standing

Out or doubtful

Expected goals

Odds movement

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1