What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Match xG 0.73-1.37; shots 12-16, on target 5-7; possession 35%-65%.
3Goals: 10' Hojlund R., 43' Varela G., 48' Politano M., 62' Marin R., 67' De Bruyne K..
What we learn
The model's most likely outcome happened.
The score agrees with the xG: the result was earned.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
MonzaNapoli
0.97Goals the model expected1.85
0.73Expected goals in the match (xG)1.37
1Goals scored4
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
2Detailed analysisNot done before kickoff
3Final checkNot done before kickoff
CandidateScreening · 27 Oct 2026, 09:10
Candidate: Monza v Napoli, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced
Home win19.0%Monza, model
Draw23.6%model
Away win57.4%Napoli, model
Expected goals0.97 - 1.85model
1Model: Monza 19.0%, draw 23.6%, Napoli 57.4%.
2No full set of 1X2 prices is stored yet, so no gap can be measured here.
3The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.
Opportunities
A price in another market than the 1X2 can be longer than the model says.
Risks
In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Market and model
What the model expects (1X2)
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 27 Oct 2026, 19:46 to 28 Oct 2026, 19:46
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Napoli