What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Match xG 1.04-1.35; shots 8-20, on target 2-5; possession 42%-58%.
What we learn
The model's most likely outcome (Udinese) did not happen.
The xG (1.04-1.35) points to a different result than the score: luck or finishing.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
ParmaUdinese
1.15Goals the model expected1.22
1.04Expected goals in the match (xG)1.35
0Goals scored0
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
2Detailed analysisNot done before kickoff
3Final checkNot done before kickoff
CandidateScreening · 27 Oct 2026, 09:10
Candidate: Parma v Udinese, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced
Home win33.7%Parma, model
Draw29.2%model
Away win37.1%Udinese, model
Expected goals1.15 - 1.22model
1Model: Parma 33.7%, draw 29.2%, Udinese 37.1%.
2No full set of 1X2 prices is stored yet, so no gap can be measured here.
3The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.
Opportunities
A price in another market than the 1X2 can be longer than the model says.
Risks
In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Market and model
What the model expects (1X2)
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 27 Oct 2026, 17:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 17:27
0 – 0 
Udinese