USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 00:30
1 – 2 
Real Salt LakeWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Austin 1-2 Real Salt Lake: the Austin-win tip lost and the xG agreed with the result
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Austin FC to win: the model rates them level with Salt Lake, the price does not
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.
bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.
| Selection | Odds | Price implies | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.00 | 33.3% | 37.7% | +4.3 pp |
| Draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27.1% | -1.5 pp |
| Away win | 2.20 | 45.5% | 35.3% | -10.2 pp |
| Austin FC or draw | 1.62 | 61.7% | 64.8% | +3.0 pp |
| Real Salt Lake or draw | 1.36 | 73.5% | 62.4% | -11.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 62.5% |
Austin FC to win: the model rates them level with Salt Lake, the price does not. Model 37.7% against 33.3% in the 3.00 price on bwin: gap 4.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: bwin.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 13%1–0 9%2–1 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | <1 |
| 2 | 6 |
Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.
| Selection | Odds | Price implies | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.00 | 33.3% | 37.7% | +4.3 pp |
| Draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27.1% | -1.5 pp |
| Away win | 2.20 | 45.5% | 35.3% | -10.2 pp |
| Austin FC or draw | 1.62 | 61.7% | 64.8% | +3.0 pp |
| Real Salt Lake or draw | 1.36 | 73.5% | 62.4% | -11.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 62.5% | 50.4% | -12.1 pp |
| Under 2.5 | 2.30 | 43.5% | 49.6% |
Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 00:31 to 29 Oct 2026, 00:31
We published at 3.00. Latest: 3.73.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 13%1–0 9%2–1 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | <1 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Austin FC and 5 for Real Salt Lake.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: bwin.
| 50.4% |
| -12.1 pp |
| Under 2.5 | 2.30 | 43.5% | 49.6% | +6.1 pp |
| Both score: yes | 1.50 | 66.7% | 55.3% | -11.4 pp |
| Both score: no | 2.50 | 40% | 44.7% | +4.7 pp |
| 8 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| <1 |
| <1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 4 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Austin FC and 5 for Real Salt Lake.
| +6.1 pp |
| Both score: yes | 1.50 | 66.7% | 55.3% | -11.4 pp |
| Both score: no | 2.50 | 40% | 44.7% | +4.7 pp |
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