USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 02:30
2 – 2 
Colorado RapidsWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
San Jose 2-2 Colorado: the home-win tip lost a draw the xG said it should have won
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
San Jose Earthquakes to win: Colorado are short of players, the price is generous
San Jose Earthquakes to win: Colorado are short of players, the price is generous. Model 48.5% against 45.5% in the 2.20 price on bwin: gap 3.0 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 02:31 to 29 Oct 2026, 02:24
We published at 2.20. Latest: 2.21.
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 11%2–1 9%1–0 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 5 for Colorado Rapids.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: bwin.
Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.
bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.
| Selection | Odds | Price implies | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.20 | 45.5% | 48.5% | +3.0 pp |
| Draw | 3.70 | 27% | 24.1% | -2.9 pp |
| Away win | 3.00 | 33.3% | 27.4% | -5.9 pp |
| San Jose Earthquakes or draw | 1.36 | 73.5% | 72.6% | -1.0 pp |
| Colorado Rapids or draw | 1.62 | 61.7% | 51.5% | -10.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 1.65 | 60.6% | 60.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Under 2.5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 39.9% | -5.6 pp |
| Both score: yes | 1.53 | 65.4% | 61.5% | -3.9 pp |
| Both score: no | 2.38 | 42% | 38.5% | -3.5 pp |
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: bwin.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 11%2–1 9%1–0 8%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 5 for Colorado Rapids.
Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.
| Selection | Odds | Price implies | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.20 | 45.5% | 48.5% | +3.0 pp |
| Draw | 3.70 | 27% | 24.1% | -2.9 pp |
| Away win | 3.00 | 33.3% | 27.4% | -5.9 pp |
| San Jose Earthquakes or draw | 1.36 | 73.5% | 72.6% | -1.0 pp |
| Colorado Rapids or draw | 1.62 | 61.7% | 51.5% | -10.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 1.65 | 60.6% | 60.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Under 2.5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 39.9% | -5.6 pp |
| Both score: yes | 1.53 | 65.4% | 61.5% | -3.9 pp |
| Both score: no | 2.38 | 42% | 38.5% | -3.5 pp |
| <1 |
| <1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
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