USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 00:30
3 – 1 
Sporting Kansas CityWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Minnesota 3-1 Sporting KC: the home side won the underlying game as well
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
No tip: the model and the market agree on Minnesota
Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 00:31 to 29 Oct 2026, 00:21
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely2–1 9%3–1 8%1–1 7%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Minnesota United and 5 for Sporting Kansas City.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: bwin.
Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.
bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.
| Selection | Odds | Price implies | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 1.42 | 70.4% | 65.4% | -5.0 pp |
| Draw | 5.00 | 20% | 18.1% | -1.9 pp |
| Away win | 6.00 | 16.7% | 16.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Minnesota United or draw | 1.13 | 88.5% | 83.5% | -5.0 pp |
| Sporting Kansas City or draw | 2.63 | 38% | 34.6% | -3.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 1.33 | 75.2% | 73.7% | -1.5 pp |
| Under 2.5 | 3.40 | 29.4% | 26.3% | -3.1 pp |
| Both score: yes | 1.50 | 66.7% | 66.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Both score: no | 2.50 | 40% | 33.5% | -6.5 pp |
| <1 |
| <1 |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Tips and posts about Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City. Free, no money played here. Community rules
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