USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 00:30

Chicago Fire 2 – 2 Orlando City

Finished1st Half 0–2 · 2nd Half 2–0

Our callOrlando City win or draw @ 2.38Won +0.69uSee why →

Key moments

Chicago FireOrlando City

6'⚽Angulo I. (assist Griezmann A.)
35'⚽Griezmann A. (assist Vinicius Nogueira)
Bamba J. (assist Barroso L.)⚽57'

Chicago Fire vs Orlando City prediction and betting tip · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:21
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:21

Orlando City or draw: the model gives the visitors far more than the price

Model49.3%Orlando City or draw
Price2.38bwin: implies 42%
Gap+7.3 ppModel minus price
Out3 / 2Chicago Fire / Orlando City
Kick-off00:30Thu 29 Oct

1Model 49.3% against 42% in the 2.38 price on bwin: gap 7.3 pp.
2Three Chicago players are out, two of them midfielders.

Opportunities

Three Chicago players are out, two of them midfielders.
The model has Orlando or draw at 49%; the price implies 42%.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.

Chicago Fire winmarket 62% · model 51%

Drawmarket 21% · model 21%

Orlando City winmarket 18% · model 28%

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.

Chicago Fire

OutAndré FrancoPlayer· medium impactCruciate ligament.
OutRobin LodPlayer· medium impactKnock.
OutSamuel RogersPlayer· low impactMuscle.

Orlando City

OutRobin JanssonPlayer· medium impactFoot.
Out

Prices read

Prices and gaps

bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	1.51	66.2%	50.7%	-15.5 pp
Draw	4.50	22.2%	20.8%	-1.4 pp
Away win	5.25	19%	28.5%	+9.4 pp
Chicago Fire or draw	1.17	85.5%	71.5%	-14.0 pp
Orlando City or draw	2.38	42%	49.3%	+7.3 pp
Over 2.5	1.25	80%

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Orlando City to win at 5.10, +8.9 pp against the market

Orlando City to win: model 28.5% against 19.0% in the market, odds 5.10.
A gap of 8.9 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

Why we make this call

Orlando City or draw: the model gives the visitors far more than the price. Model 49.3% against 42% in the 2.38 price on bwin: gap 7.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model 49.3% against 42% in the 2.38 price on bwin: gap 7.3 pp.
2Three Chicago players are out, two of them midfielders.
3The model has Orlando or draw at 49%; the price implies 42%.

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.

Chicago Fire winmarket 62% · model 51%

Drawmarket 21% · model 21%

Orlando City winmarket 18% · model 28%

Other markets: model against the odds

Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: bwin.

Chicago Fire or drawmarket 85% · model 72%

Orlando City or drawmarket 42% · model 49%

Over 2.5 goalsmarket 76% · model 75%

Under 2.5 goalsmarket 24% · model 25%

Both score: yesmarket 69% · model 73%

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely2–1 8%1–1 8%2–2 7%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Chicago Fire goals, columns are Orlando City goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2	3	3	2	<1	<1
1	4	8	6	3	1	<1
2	5	8

Absences

Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.

Chicago Fire

OutAndré FrancoPlayer· medium impactCruciate ligament.
OutRobin LodPlayer· medium impactKnock.
OutSamuel RogersPlayer· low impactMuscle.

Orlando City

OutRobin JanssonPlayer· medium impactFoot.
OutTyrese SpicerPlayer· low impactFoot.

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Prices and gaps

bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	1.51	66.2%	50.7%	-15.5 pp
Draw	4.50	22.2%	20.8%	-1.4 pp
Away win	5.25	19%	28.5%	+9.4 pp
Chicago Fire or draw	1.17	85.5%	71.5%	-14.0 pp
Orlando City or draw	2.38	42%	49.3%	+7.3 pp
Over 2.5	1.25	80%	75.5%	-4.5 pp
Under 2.5	4.00	25%	24.5%

Model

49.3%Orlando City or draw

Price

2.38bwin: implies 42%

Gap

+7.3 ppModel minus price

Out

3 / 2Chicago Fire / Orlando City

Kick-off

00:30Thu 29 Oct

Key moments

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Key moments

Community

Tips

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More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

All events

1st Half0–2

2nd Half2–0

Line-ups

Chicago Fire

Starting line-up

Orlando City

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

After the match

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Why we make this call

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Community

Tips

Talk about it