What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Biggest gap to the market: Excelsior to win, 24.2% for the model against 17.6% implied by Tipsport's odds of 5.67 (+6.6 pp). Above our 2 pp minimum, but no tip was published.
Read 1 Nov 2026, 12:01
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Excelsior winmarket 18% · model 24%
Drawmarket 21% · model 24%
Twente winmarket 65% · model 52%
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
1.22 - 1.87Excelsior - Twente
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 11%1–2 10%0–1 8%
Excelsior ↓ · Twente →
Probability of each exact score: rows are Excelsior goals, columns are Twente goals
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
5
8
8
5
2
<1
1
5
11
10
6
Goal markets according to the model
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 31 Oct 2026, 13:31 to 1 Nov 2026, 13:21
0 – 9 
Twente