Argentina · Liga Profesional · 27 Oct 2026, 00:15
1 – 0
Dep. RiestraWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Instituto 1-0 Dep. Riestra: the candidate outsider never got into the game
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Candidate: Dep. Riestra to win at 5.36, +4.5 pp against the market
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Tipsport 1X2 · 26 Oct 2026, 00:15 to 27 Oct 2026, 00:12
From the expected goals, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely0–0 18%1–0 18%1–1 13%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18 | 11 | 4 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Instituto and 5 for Dep. Riestra.
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