Published 26 Oct 2026, 22:51 · cannot be editedResult: LOST -0.50u · closing odds 3.73
After the match
What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Post-match review28 Oct 2026, 09:21
Sassuolo 2-6 Lazio: the Sassuolo tip lost, and Lazio's xG showed why
1Lazio won 6-2. Expected goals were 3.39 for Lazio and 0.78 for Sassuolo; Lazio had 8 shots on target to 2.
2The published tip was Sassuolo to win at 3.44 (model 32.6%); it lost. Sassuolo also had a player sent off.
3The analysis flagged Lazio running ahead of their play; the match showed Lazio were simply better here.
What we learn
The risks that came true: Sassuolo conceded 2.0 a game and were missing centre-back Idzes.
Lazio's results ahead of xG did not mean weakness: their attack produced 3.39 xG in this match.
A 3.6 pp gap on an outsider is within the model's known noise; one result says little, but the pick had little protection.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
SassuoloLazio
1.32Goals the model expected1.60
0.78Expected goals in the match (xG)3.39
2Goals scored6
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 19:19
✓Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 19:23
3Final checkNot done before kickoff
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 26 Oct 2026, 19:23
Advance: Sassuolo draw no bet at 2.50; Lazio's results run well ahead of their play
Model33%Sassuolo win
Market29%Sassuolo win, margin out (Tipsport 3.44)
Points vs xPTS+8.5 / -1.4Lazio / Sassuolo, 8 matches
2Lazio sit 8.5 points above xPTS and have conceded 5 goals against 10.5 xG faced.
3Pick: Sassuolo draw no bet at 2.50 (bwin): model 44% against 37.5% in the price, 1X2 gap is +3.6 pp.
4Against: Sassuolo concede 2.0 a game, lost two straight and miss centre-back Idzes.
Opportunities
Lazio's 22 points sit on 13.5 xPTS: a fall back to their xG would hit the 44% the market gives them.
Draw no bet returns the stake on a draw, which the model puts at 26%.
Sassuolo's xG for is 1.60 a game against 1.72 for Lazio: the attacks are close.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the odds with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
Sassuolo winmarket 29% · model 33%
Drawmarket 27% · model 26%
Lazio winmarket 44% · model 41%
Other markets: model against the odds
Margin taken out. Prices from bwin on the match page, not Tipsport.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight matches each.
Underlying quality
Expected goals per game
xG per game this season, eight matches each. Not the model: a plain read.
SassuoloLazio
1.60xG for1.72
1.92xG against1.31
Points against expectation
Lazio are about 8.5 points ahead of their xPTS; Sassuolo are close to theirs.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Sassuolo4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.77
6.9Esposito
6.6Berardi
7.1
Where they stand
Standing and context
Serie A after eight matches each.
Metric
Sassuolo
Lazio
Position
14th, 8 pts
2nd, 22 pts
Record
2W 2D 4L (12:16)
7W 1D (16:5)
Last five (oldest first)
W L D L L
D W W W W
Last match
Sat 24/10, Como 2-0 Sassuolo
Sat 24/10, Lazio 2-1 Parma
Manager
Alberto Aquilani
Gennaro Gattuso
Head to head, referee and venue
Recent meetings
Lazio lead the series 5 wins to 3 with 2 draws; the last three Serie A meetings were level or close.
09/03/2026Lazio 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
14/09/2025Sassuolo 1-0 LazioSerie A
26/05/2024Lazio 1-1 SassuoloSerie A
Venue
Item
Detail
Venue
Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia (21,584)
Screening · 19:19 · Candidate: Sassuolo to win at 3.44, +3.6 pp against the market
Sassuolo to win: model 32.6% against 28.7% in the market, odds 3.44.
A gap of 3.6 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
Why we back Sassuolo
Sassuolo to win at 3.44: Lazio's results run well ahead of their play. Model: Sassuolo 33%, draw 26%, Lazio 41%. Tipsport's 3.44 implies 29%: a gap of 3.6 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
1Model: Sassuolo 33%, draw 26%, Lazio 41%. Tipsport's 3.44 implies 29%: a gap of 3.6 pp.
2Lazio have 22 points on 13.5 xPTS and have conceded 5 goals against 10.5 xGA: results well ahead of their play.
3Sassuolo's xG is 1.60 a game against 1.72 for Lazio: the attacks are close. Lazio miss Guðmundsson; Sassuolo miss Idzes and Koné.
4A long shot: the model sees value, but Sassuolo concede 2.0 a game and have lost their last two.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the odds with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
Sassuolo winmarket 29% · model 33%
Drawmarket 27% · model 26%
Lazio winmarket 44% · model 41%
Other markets: model against the odds
Margin taken out. Prices from bwin on the match page, not Tipsport.
Sassuolo draw no bet (2.50)market 38% · model
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 26 Oct 2026, 17:31 to 27 Oct 2026, 17:31
2 – 6 
Lazio