Italy · Serie A · 27 Oct 2026, 19:45

AS Roma 4 – 2 Cagliari

Finished1st Half 2–1 · 2nd Half 2–1

Our reportDropped: the model's gaps against Roma are its own blind spot; the data back RomaRead it →

Key moments

AS RomaCagliari

10'⚽Nzola M. (penalty)
Lulli E. (assist Molina N.)⚽15'
Pisilli N. (assist Lulli E.)⚽21'
81'⚽Maldini D. (assist Obert A.)
Mora R. (Ghilardi D.)

AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 22:42
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 22:48
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 26 Oct 2026, 22:48

Dropped: the model's gaps against Roma are its own blind spot; the data back Roma

Model60%Roma win
Market71%Roma win, margin out (Tipsport 1.38)
xG difference+9.7 / -5.5Roma / Cagliari, 8 matches
Points vs xPTS+1.9 / +4.8Roma / Cagliari
Rest3 / 3 daysRoma / Cagliari
Out or doubtful3 / 2Roma / Cagliari

1Model: Roma 60%, draw 24%, Cagliari 17%. Market (Tipsport 1.38 / 5.28 / 9.75, margin out): 71%, 19%, 10%.
2Every gap (draw, Cagliari, X2) comes from the model rating Roma below the price; the data say the opposite.
3Roma's xG difference is +9.7 in 8 matches, Cagliari's -5.5; Cagliari are 4.8 points above their xPTS, Roma 1.9.
4Dropped: no market has a gap that the data support.

Opportunities

If Roma's defence cools (6 conceded against 10.9 xGA), the draw at 5.28 gains.
Roma's attack wastes 2.1 big chances a game: goals could come in fewer than the xG says.

Risks

Roma's 6 goals conceded are 4.9 below their xGA of 10.9: the defence is running hot.
Svilar, Pellegrini and Koné are out for Roma; only the possible XI is known a day ahead.
Eight matches each: xG and xPTS gaps are noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

AS Roma winmarket 72% · model 60%

Drawmarket 19% · model 24%

Cagliari winmarket 10% · model 17%

Other markets: model against the odds

Margin taken out. Prices from bwin on the match page, not Tipsport.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight matches each.

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

xG per game this season, eight matches each. Not the model: a plain read.

AS RomaCagliari

2.58xG for1.15

1.36xG against1.85

Points against expectation

Cagliari are well above their xPTS; Roma are not.

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Roma are without their goalkeeper Svilar.

AS Roma

OutMile SvilarGoalkeeper· high impactBroken finger.
OutLorenzo PellegriniMidfielder· medium impactThigh.
OutManu KonéMidfielder· medium impactThigh.

Cagliari

OutHarry WinksMidfielder· medium impactMuscle.
Out

Where they stand

Standing and context

Serie A after eight matches each.

Metric	Roma	Cagliari
Position	3rd, 18 pts	9th, 13 pts
Record	5W 3D (19:6)	4W 1D 3L (6:9)
Last five (oldest first)	W D D W D	W W D L L
Manager	Gian Piero Gasperini	Fabio Pisacane
Kick-off	Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon	Stadio Olimpico, Rome

Screening · 22:42 · Candidate: AS Roma v Cagliari, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced

Model: AS Roma 60.9%, draw 23.2%, Cagliari 16.0%.
The only 1X2 gap is on a long shot: the other markets are still to be priced.
The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–0 12%2–0 11%1–1 11%

Probability of each exact score: rows are AS Roma goals, columns are Cagliari goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	5	3	<1	<1	<1
1	12	11	5	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	7	6	3	<1	<1	<1
4	3	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for AS Roma and 5 for Cagliari.

	AS Roma	Cagliari
Goals per game	2.4	0.8
Shots on target	5.8	3.6
Big chances	3.8	1.5
Possession	56%	43%
Goals conceded	0.8	1.1
Duels won	53%	46%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	5	3	<1	<1	<1
1	12	11	5	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	7	6	3	<1	<1	<1
4	3	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	5	3	<1	<1	<1
1	12	11	5	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	7	6	3	<1	<1	<1
4	3	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

After the match

More matches on Tuesday, 27 Oct 2026

Key moments

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Tuesday, 27 Oct 2026

All events

1st Half2–1

2nd Half2–1

Line-ups

AS Roma

Starting line-up

Cagliari

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Other markets: model against the odds

Team comparison

Season profile

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Efficiency and defending

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	5	3	<1	<1	<1
1	12	11	5	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	7	6	3	<1	<1	<1
4	3	3	1	<1	<1	<1
5	1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1