What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Post-match review3 Nov 2026, 09:19
Valladolid 4-3 Leganes: seven goals, no price
1Valladolid won 4-3. The model expected 1.41 - 0.94 and had Valladolid at 47%.
Dropped: no bookmaker price could be read, so no gap could be measured.
What we learn
The model expected 2.35 goals and seven were scored: its goal totals can be far off in open games.
Without a price nothing could be tested.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
ValladolidLeganes
1.41Goals the model expected0.94
2.86Expected goals in the match (xG)2.26
4Goals scored3
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
✓Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:18
3Final checkNot needed
Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 1 Nov 2026, 09:18
Not enough data to judge: no bookmaker price could be read
Model 1X247% / 28% / 25%Valladolid / draw / Leganes
Over 2.5 goals42%Model
Both teams score47%Model, yes
PricesNone readNo bookmaker price found
1The model reads the match, but no bookmaker price could be read for it.
2Without a price there is no gap to measure and nothing is invented.
3Dropped: no market with a price and a gap.
Opportunities
None found without a price.
Risks
No odds were available to compare with the model.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
What the model expects (1X2)
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Valladolid v Leganes, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced
4 – 3 
Leganes