Italy · Serie A · 2 Nov 2026, 19:45
0 – 3 
ParmaWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Atalanta 0-3 Parma: the under 2.5 tip lost
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Under 2.5 goals at Betano 2.07: the model is 2.3 pp above the price
Market probability is the Betano odds with the margin taken out.
Model against Betano odds with the margin taken out.
Under 2.5 goals at Betano 2.07: the model is 2.3 pp above the price. Model: under 2.5 goals 50.6%. Betano 2.07 implies 48.3%: gap 2.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
Market probability is the Betano odds with the margin taken out.
Model against Betano odds with the margin taken out.
Tipsport 1X2 · 1 Nov 2026, 19:46 to 2 Nov 2026, 19:42
Betano price shown as 1/odds, margin not removed.
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–0 12%1–1 11%2–0 11%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Atalanta and 5 for Parma.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Betano price shown as 1/odds, margin not removed.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–0 12%1–1 11%2–0 11%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Atalanta and 5 for Parma.
Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Tips and posts about Atalanta vs Parma. Free, no money played here. Community rules
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Tips closed at kickoff.
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