Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 28 Oct 2026, 22:30

Bragantino 3 – 0 Chapecoense-SC

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 2–0

Our callChapecoense-SC win or draw @ 3.25Lost -0.50uSee why →

Key moments

BragantinoChapecoense-SC

Wallace Yan⚽43'
Wallace Yan (assist Lucas Barbosa)⚽51'
Mosquera H. (assist Herrera J.)⚽90'

Bragantino vs Chapecoense-SC prediction and betting tip · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:21
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:21

Chapecoense or draw: a big price for a side the model gives a third

Model33.3%Chapecoense or draw
Price3.25Betano: implies 30.8%
Gap+2.5 ppModel minus price
Out5 / 3RB Bragantino / Chapecoense
Kick-off22:30Wed 28 Oct

1Model 33.3% against 30.8% in the 3.25 price on Betano: gap 2.5 pp.
2Bragantino have five players out; Chapecoense three.

Opportunities

Bragantino have five players out; Chapecoense three.
The model has Chapecoense or draw at 33%; the price implies 31%.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano odds with the margin taken out.

Bragantino winmarket 71% · model 67%

Drawmarket 18% · model 20%

Chapecoense-SC winmarket 11% · model 13%

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.

RB Bragantino

OutGustavo MarquesPlayer· medium impactGroin.
OutGustavo NevesPlayer· medium impactThigh.
OutJosé Andrés HurtadoPlayer· medium impactThigh.
OutRodriguinhoPlayer· low impactInjured.
OutDavi GomesPlayer

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Betano, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	1.29	77.5%	66.7%	-10.8 pp
Draw	5.00	20%	20%	-0.0 pp
Away win	8.50	11.8%	13.3%	+1.6 pp
RB Bragantino or draw	1.07	93.5%	86.7%	-6.8 pp
Chapecoense or draw	3.25	30.8%	33.3%	+2.5 pp
Over 2.5	1.40	71.4%

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Bragantino v Chapecoense-SC, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced

Model: Bragantino 66.7%, draw 20.0%, Chapecoense-SC 13.3%.
The only 1X2 gap is on a long shot: the other markets are still to be priced.
The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.

Why we make this call

Chapecoense or draw: a big price for a side the model gives a third. Model 33.3% against 30.8% in the 3.25 price on Betano: gap 2.5 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model 33.3% against 30.8% in the 3.25 price on Betano: gap 2.5 pp.
2Bragantino have five players out; Chapecoense three.
3The model has Chapecoense or draw at 33%; the price implies 31%.

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano odds with the margin taken out.

Bragantino winmarket 71% · model 67%

Drawmarket 18% · model 20%

Chapecoense-SC winmarket 11% · model 13%

Other markets: model against the odds

Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: Betano.

RB Bragantino or drawmarket 93% · model 87%

Chapecoense or drawmarket 31% · model 33%

Over 2.5 goalsmarket 63% · model 59%

Under 2.5 goalsmarket 37% · model 41%

Both score: yesmarket 53% · model 52%

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely2–0 11%1–0 10%2–1 10%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Bragantino goals, columns are Chapecoense-SC goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11

Absences

Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.

RB Bragantino

OutGustavo MarquesPlayer· medium impactGroin.
OutGustavo NevesPlayer· medium impactThigh.
OutJosé Andrés HurtadoPlayer· medium impactThigh.
OutRodriguinhoPlayer· low impactInjured.
OutDavi GomesPlayer· low impactInjured.

Chapecoense

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Prices and gaps

Betano, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	1.29	77.5%	66.7%	-10.8 pp
Draw	5.00	20%	20%	-0.0 pp
Away win	8.50	11.8%	13.3%	+1.6 pp
RB Bragantino or draw	1.07	93.5%	86.7%	-6.8 pp
Chapecoense or draw	3.25	30.8%	33.3%	+2.5 pp
Over 2.5	1.40	71.4%	58.6%	-12.8 pp
Under 2.5	2.35	42.6%	41.4%

Model

33.3%Chapecoense or draw

Price

3.25Betano: implies 30.8%

Gap

+2.5 ppModel minus price

Out

5 / 3RB Bragantino / Chapecoense

Kick-off

22:30Wed 28 Oct

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
5	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
5	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

More matches on Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026

Key moments

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All events

1st Half1–0

2nd Half2–0

Line-ups

Bragantino

Starting line-up

Chapecoense-SC

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Why we make this call

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
5	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1