Turkey · Süper Lig · 31 Oct 2026, 10:30

Erzurumspor 1 – 3 Corum

Finished1st Half 0–1 · 2nd Half 1–2

Our reportDropped: the Çorum gap is there, but their injuries are against itRead it →

Key moments

ErzurumsporCorum

20'⚽Soyuncu C. (assist Under C.)
71'⚽Ramirez J.
Diabate I. (assist Kerk G.)⚽74'
78'

Erzurumspor vs Corum prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:23
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 30 Oct 2026, 09:23

Dropped: the Çorum gap is there, but their injuries are against it

Model29.7%Erzurumspor win
Betano price2.47Erzurumspor win
Best gap+4.4 ppmodel minus 1/odds, any market
Expected goals1.20 - 1.50Erzurumspor - Çorum
Draw26.7%Betano 3.1
Çorum out3 + 1injured + doubtful

1Model 43.6% for a Çorum win against 39.2% at 2.55 (+4.4 pp).
2SofaScore lists Gürlük, Saatçı and Söyüncü injured and Fredy doubtful on the Çorum side.
3A defender of Söyüncü's level out is a concrete fact against the pick: dropped.

Opportunities

If the absences prove less important than the squad suggests, Çorum would be fairly priced.

Risks

Three Çorum players injured and one doubtful, all muscle injuries.
Çorum are 9th; the match is an early 10:30 kick-off away from home.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out; the gap in the tip uses the raw price.

Erzurumspor winmarket 36% · model 30%

Drawmarket 29% · model 27%

Çorum winmarket 35% · model 44%

What the model expects (1X2)

Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Market	Price
1X2	2.47 / 3.10 / 2.55
Double chance X2	1.45
Over / under 2.5	1.82 / 1.70
Both teams to score	1.65 / 1.88

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Erzurumspor v Corum, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced

Model: Erzurumspor 29.7%, draw 26.7%, Corum 43.6%.
No full set of 1X2 prices is stored yet, so no gap can be measured here.
The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 13%0–1 9%1–2 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Erzurumspor goals, columns are Corum goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	8	4	1	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	5	7	5	3	1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Erzurumspor and 5 for Corum.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	8	4	1	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	5	7	5	3	1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	8	4	1	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	5	7	5	3	1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

After the match

More matches on Saturday, 31 Oct 2026

Key moments

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

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All events

1st Half0–1

2nd Half1–2

Line-ups

Erzurumspor

Starting line-up

Corum

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

What the model expects (1X2)

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Odds movement

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	8	4	1	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	5	7	5	3	1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1