Mexico · Liga MX · 31 Oct 2026, 01:00

Juarez 3 – 1 Queretaro

Finished1st Half 2–0 · 2nd Half 1–1

Our reportDropped: no market on Betano is two points or more from the modelRead it →

Key moments

JuarezQueretaro

Estupinan O.⚽17'
Madson (Garcia D.)⚽39'
Rodriguez J.⚽83'
89'⚽Avila A. (assist Coronel M.)

Juarez vs Queretaro prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:23
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 30 Oct 2026, 09:23

Dropped: no market on Betano is two points or more from the model

Model36.7%Juarez win
Betano price2.82Juarez win
Best gap+1.2 ppmodel minus 1/odds, any market
Expected goals1.30 - 1.27Juarez - Querétaro
Draw27.8%Betano 3.2
CheckedPrices onlyno gap to check

1Model 36.7% for Juarez against 35.5% at 2.82 on Betano: +1.2 pp.
2The Tipsport price of 2.90 that triggered the screening is not the base price; on Betano the gap is below 2 pp.
3Double chance, goals and both-teams-to-score are all priced above the model.

Opportunities

None at the Betano prices.

Risks

Querétaro lost three in a row, Juarez three of their last five (Betano notes): form is poor on both sides.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out; the gap in the tip uses the raw price.

Juarez winmarket 32% · model 37%

Drawmarket 28% · model 28%

Querétaro winmarket 41% · model 36%

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Market	Price
1X2	2.82 / 3.20 / 2.20
Double chance	1.57 / 1.37 / 1.24
Over / under 2.5	1.72 / 1.78
Both teams to score	1.60

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Juarez to win at 2.90, +2.2 pp against the market

Juarez to win: model 36.7% against 32.0% in the market, odds 2.90.
A gap of 2.2 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 13%1–0 9%0–1 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Juarez goals, columns are Queretaro goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	9	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	3	1	<1
2	6	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Juarez and 5 for Queretaro.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	9	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	3	1	<1
2	6	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	9	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	3	1	<1
2	6	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

After the match

More matches on Saturday, 31 Oct 2026

Key moments

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

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All events

1st Half2–0

2nd Half1–1

Line-ups

Juarez

Starting line-up

Queretaro

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Model against market (1X2)

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Odds movement

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	9	6	3	<1	<1
1	9	13	8	3	1	<1
2	6	8	5	2	<1	<1
3	3	4	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1