Mexico · Liga MX · 31 Oct 2026, 01:00

Atl. San Luis 0 – 1 Atlas

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 0–1

Our reportDropped: a big gap on one source only, with no way to check the line-upsRead it →

Key moments

Atl. San LuisAtlas

63'⚽Monzon F. (Valenzuela M.)

All events

Atl. San LuisAtlas

1st Half0–0

Atl. San Luis vs Atlas prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:23
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 30 Oct 2026, 09:23

Dropped: a big gap on one source only, with no way to check the line-ups

Model48.9%Atl. San Luis win
Betano price2.5Atl. San Luis win
Best gap+8.9 ppmodel minus 1/odds, any market
Expected goals1.79 - 1.28Atl. San Luis - Atlas
Draw24.2%Betano 3.25
CheckedPrices onlyno second source

1Model 48.9% for San Luis against 40.0% at 2.50 (+8.9 pp), the largest gap of the day.
2Only Betano and the model were read: SofaScore could not be reached for this match, so no absences or line-ups.
3Betano notes Atlas won 5 of their last 6 away games; a gap this size needs a check I could not make.

Opportunities

If the home side is as strong as the model reads, this is the biggest price gap on the day.

Risks

No absence, line-up or table data read for either side.
Atlas won 5 of their last 6 away matches in the Liga MX (Betano's own note).
Both sides average over 3 goals in recent games, so the result is open.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests; a 9 pp gap more likely reflects stale ratings.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out; the gap in the tip uses the raw price.

Atl. San Luis winmarket 36% · model 49%

Drawmarket 28% · model 24%

Atlas winmarket 37% · model 27%

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Market	Price
1X2	2.50 / 3.25 / 2.45
Over / under 2.5	1.65 / 1.88

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Atl. San Luis to win at 2.52, +9.2 pp against the market

Atl. San Luis to win: model 48.9% against 36.5% in the market, odds 2.52.
A gap of 9.2 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 11%2–1 10%1–0 8%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Atl. San Luis goals, columns are Atlas goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	10	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Atl. San Luis and 5 for Atlas.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	10	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	10	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half0–0

After the match

More matches on Saturday, 31 Oct 2026

Key moments

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1st Half0–0

After the match

Community

Tips

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2nd Half0–1

Line-ups

Atl. San Luis

Starting line-up

Atlas

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Model against market (1X2)

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Odds movement

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	8	11	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	10	6	3	<1	<1
3	4	6	4	2	<1	<1
4	2	3	2	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1