Argentina · Liga Profesional · 31 Oct 2026, 00:15
1 – 2 
Rosario CentralWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Rosario Central: the model's lean held
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Dropped: the best gap, under 2.5 goals, is 1.6 pp
Tipsport 1X2 · 30 Oct 2026, 00:16 to 31 Oct 2026, 00:16
Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out; the gap in the tip uses the raw price.
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 14%0–1 14%0–0 12%
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | <1 |
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 4 |
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
| Market | Price |
|---|---|
| 1X2 | 3.75 / 3.15 / 1.87 |
| Double chance | 1.80 / 1.23 / 1.24 |
| Over / under 2.5 | 1.87 / 1.65 |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 / 1.78 |
| 1 |
| <1 |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 4 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 5 for Rosario Central.
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