Mexico · Liga MX · 31 Oct 2026, 03:00

Puebla 1 – 2 UNAM Pumas

Finished1st Half 1–1 · 2nd Half 0–1

Our reportDropped: a thin under 2.5 gap, left out of the day's three tipsRead it →

Key moments

PueblaUNAM Pumas

10'⚽Juninho (assist Lopez R.)
Moreno Villegas O. F. (assist Hernandez L.)⚽23'
⚽Angulo A.

Puebla vs UNAM Pumas prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:23
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 30 Oct 2026, 09:23

Dropped: a thin under 2.5 gap, left out of the day's three tips

Model25.7%Puebla win
Betano price3Puebla win
Best gap+2.2 ppmodel minus 1/odds, any market
Expected goals1.07 - 1.55Puebla - UNAM Pumas
Draw26.6%Betano 3.3
CheckedPrices onlyno second source

1Model 51.3% for under 2.5 goals against 53.5% at 1.87 on Betano: +2.2 pp, the only market over 2 pp.
2Only Betano and the model were read, so there is no absence or line-up check behind the gap.
3Three other matches have larger gaps and a second source: this one is left out.

Opportunities

Betano notes only 35.7% of Puebla's matches this season went over 2.5 goals, which fits the under.

Risks

No absence or line-up data read.
UNAM scored in 4 of their last 5, so the under is not safe.
A gap of 2.2 pp is within the noise of the model; it has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out; the gap in the tip uses the raw price.

Puebla winmarket 30% · model 26%

Drawmarket 27% · model 27%

UNAM Pumas winmarket 43% · model 48%

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Market	Price
1X2	3.00 / 3.30 / 2.07
Double chance	1.65 / 1.33 / 1.23
Over / under 2.5	1.65 / 1.87
Both teams to score	1.55 / 2.02

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Puebla v UNAM Pumas, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced

Model: Puebla 25.7%, draw 26.6%, UNAM Pumas 47.7%.
No 1X2 gap of 2 pp (best 0.5 pp): the other markets are still to be priced.
The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 13%0–1 11%1–2 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Puebla goals, columns are UNAM Pumas goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	11	9	5	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	4	6	5	3	1	<1
3	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Puebla and 5 for UNAM Pumas.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	11	9	5	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	4	6	5	3	1	<1
3	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	11	9	5	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	4	6	5	3	1	<1
3	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

After the match

More matches on Saturday, 31 Oct 2026

Key moments

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Saturday, 31 Oct 2026

All events

1st Half1–1

2nd Half0–1

Line-ups

Puebla

Starting line-up

UNAM Pumas

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Model against market (1X2)

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Odds movement

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	11	9	5	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	4	6	5	3	1	<1
3	1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1