Germany · 2. Bundesliga · 31 Oct 2026, 12:00

Darmstadt 1 – 1 Magdeburg

Finished1st Half 1–1 · 2nd Half 0–0

Our reportDropped: the model backs the 18th-placed side while the table and absences point the other wayRead it →

Key moments

DarmstadtMagdeburg

14'⚽Muller T.
Smit M. (assist Richter M.)⚽37'

All events

Darmstadt vs Magdeburg prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:23
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 30 Oct 2026, 09:23

Dropped: the model backs the 18th-placed side while the table and absences point the other way

Model41.7%Darmstadt win
Betano price2.82Darmstadt win
Best gap+6.2 ppmodel minus 1/odds, any market
Expected goals1.82 - 1.66Darmstadt - Magdeburg
Draw23.2%Betano 3.65
Table18th / 5thDarmstadt / Magdeburg

1Model 41.7% for Darmstadt against 35.5% at 2.82 (+6.2 pp); double chance 1X at 1.60 has +2.4 pp.
2Darmstadt are 18th, Magdeburg 5th; Darmstadt also played a DFB-Pokal tie on Tuesday.
3Four players are listed injured (Sickinger, Nürnberger, Marseiler, Furukawa): dropped on that.

Opportunities

If the home side's ratings are right, Darmstadt are underpriced; the table and injuries do not support it.

Risks

Table 18th against 5th, with Magdeburg at 16 points from nine.
SofaScore lists four injured, two with unknown return and one with a cruciate injury.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out; the gap in the tip uses the raw price.

Darmstadt winmarket 33% · model 42%

Drawmarket 25% · model 23%

Magdeburg winmarket 42% · model 35%

What the model expects (1X2)

Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Market	Price
1X2	2.82 / 3.65 / 2.22
Double chance 1X	1.60
Over / under 2.5	1.44 / 2.25
Both teams to score	1.39 / 2.37

Standing and context

Metric	Darmstadt	Magdeburg
Position	18th	5th
Record, 9 matches	not read	5W 1D 3L (20:12)

Screening · 09:10 · Candidate: Darmstadt v Magdeburg, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced

Model: Darmstadt 41.7%, draw 23.2%, Magdeburg 35.1%.
No full set of 1X2 prices is stored yet, so no gap can be measured here.
The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 10%2–1 8%1–2 8%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Darmstadt goals, columns are Magdeburg goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	10	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Darmstadt and 5 for Magdeburg.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	10	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	10	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

After the match

More matches on Saturday, 31 Oct 2026

Key moments

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After the match

Community

Tips

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1st Half1–1

2nd Half0–0

Line-ups

Darmstadt

Starting line-up

Magdeburg

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

What the model expects (1X2)

Standing and context

Prices on Betano.pt

Standing and context

Odds movement

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	5	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	10	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1